锰硅为何冲高回落？

Core Viewpoint - The manganese silicon futures market is under pressure due to weak demand expectations and fluctuating prices, with the main contract closing at 5668 yuan/ton, down 3.21% from the previous trading day [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Manganese silicon futures experienced significant volatility, initially rising due to a strike in South Africa, but prices quickly fell after the strike was resolved with a new 51 billion rand guarantee approved by South African ministers [1] - Supply expectations for manganese silicon raw materials are increasing, with South32 planning to resume sales from its GEMCO manganese mine in June, gradually restoring shipments by 2026 [1] - Domestic port inventories of manganese ore have increased by 20% from low levels, while overseas mine prices remain weak, leading to a lack of upward momentum in manganese ore prices [1] Group 2: Production and Inventory - Manganese silicon production in major producing areas saw a significant decline in early May, but the rate of decrease has slowed recently, with weekly production reaching 165,200 tons, a 1.51% increase from the previous week [2] - Despite production cuts by manufacturers, the overall supply-demand imbalance is expected to persist, with independent silicon manganese producers reducing output by nearly 20% since late February due to losses [2] - High inventory levels persist, with independent silicon manganese producers' inventories increasing by 70% from low levels, indicating that production cuts have not improved the supply-demand situation [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for manganese silicon prices is weak, with high inventory levels and limited demand growth expected, particularly as downstream steel demand enters a seasonal lull [3] - The supply of manganese silicon may continue to increase due to profit-driven production, while iron water production is expected to stabilize, further constraining manganese silicon demand [3] - Analysts suggest that the long-term demand for manganese silicon is likely to remain weak, and recommend short positions at higher prices, with resistance levels at 6050-6150 yuan/ton and support levels at 5550-5700 yuan/ton [3]