欧盟经济预计在全球经济不确定性中实现温和增长

Economic Growth Forecast - The European Commission's spring economic forecast for 2025 indicates that despite global policy uncertainties and escalating trade tensions, the EU economy is expected to maintain moderate growth this year, with a potential rebound in 2026 [1] - The projected real GDP growth for the EU and Eurozone in 2025 is 1.1% and 0.9% respectively, remaining largely unchanged from 2024; growth is expected to increase to 1.5% and 1.4% in 2026 [1] Inflation and Consumer Behavior - The overall inflation rate in the Eurozone is anticipated to decrease from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.1% in 2025 and further to 1.7% in 2026; the EU's inflation rate is also expected to decline from a slightly higher level in 2024 to just below 2% by 2026 [1] - Private consumption is projected to grow slightly above last autumn's forecast, reaching 1.5% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, supported by strong growth momentum in 2024 and a resilient labor market despite high savings rates limiting consumption [1] Investment and Trade - Following a contraction of 1.8% in fixed capital formation in 2024, investment is expected to recover moderately, with growth forecasted at 1.5% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026 [1] - EU exports are projected to grow by 0.7% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, impacted by a slowdown in global trade [1] Employment and Wage Trends - The labor market remains resilient, with an expected increase of 2 million jobs by 2026 and a reduction in the unemployment rate to a historical low of 5.7% [2] - Nominal wage growth is slowing, but real wages are expected to continue rising, helping to recover purchasing power lost during the pandemic [2] Fiscal Outlook - The general government deficit for the EU is projected to rise to 3.3% in 2025 after a decrease to 3.2% in 2024, remaining at that level in 2026 [2] - The debt-to-GDP ratio for the EU is expected to slightly increase to 83.2% in 2025 and 84.5% in 2026 [2] Risks and Opportunities - Risks such as trade fragmentation and climate disasters pose downward threats to growth; however, positive factors like easing US-EU trade tensions, new trade agreements, increased defense spending, and deepening structural reforms are expected to enhance the resilience of the EU economy [2]