特斯拉寒冬将至？全球用户兴趣滑坡，瑞银再度喊出“卖出”评级

Core Viewpoint - Global consumer interest in Tesla is declining, leading UBS to maintain a "sell" rating with a target price of $190, indicating a potential 44% downside from the current price of $339.34 [1][2] Group 1: Consumer Interest Decline - The proportion of consumers considering purchasing a Tesla globally has decreased from 39% last year to 36% [3] - Tesla's status as the preferred electric vehicle brand has dropped significantly from 22% to 18% [6] - In the U.S., Tesla retains about 48% of the electric vehicle market share, but its preferred brand status has plummeted from 38% to 29%, a decline of 9 percentage points [9] Group 2: Challenges in Key Markets - In China, Tesla's preferred brand status has fallen from 18% to 14%, being surpassed by BYD and emerging brand Xiaomi [11] - Tesla's technological leadership perception in China is eroding, with BYD now viewed as the technology leader [12] - In Europe, Tesla's brand consideration has dropped to 33%, being overtaken by Audi and BMW, with its preferred brand status declining from 20% to 15%, a drop of 4.6 percentage points [17][19] Group 3: Autonomous Driving Concerns - Only about 12% of consumers are willing to pay over $7,600 for Tesla's autonomous driving feature, while the current price for FSD is $8,000 [20] - The mismatch between pricing and consumer willingness to pay may hinder Tesla's software service revenue growth potential [24] Group 4: Market Pricing and Affordability - The starting price for Model Y is approximately $45,000 in the U.S., aligning with about 50% of consumers' budgets; in China, it is 263,500 RMB, fitting about 58% of consumers; while in Germany, the €45,000 starting price aligns with less than 37% of consumers' budgets [24]