Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC forecasts that Aneng Logistics (09956) will achieve adjusted net profits of 1.01 billion and 1.22 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to adjusted P/E ratios of 10.0x and 8.2x for those years, indicating a potential upside of 18.9% from the current price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue reached 2.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%, with a gross profit of 410 million yuan, up 7% year-on-year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 226 million yuan, reflecting a 20% year-on-year growth, while the adjusted net profit was 242 million yuan, up 16% year-on-year, achieving a record high adjusted net profit margin of 9.4% [2] - The company managed to achieve good profit growth despite a weak market demand and high profit base, supported by a structural adjustment in cargo weight [2] Group 2: Cargo Structure and Pricing - The total volume of LTL (Less Than Truckload) freight in Q1 increased by 6% to 3.045 million tons, with mini parcels (under 70kg) and small parcels (70-300kg) growing by 27% and 12% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The average price per ton for LTL services rose by 3% to 850 yuan/ton, while the unit cost also increased by 3% to 715 yuan/ton, with specific service costs varying [4] Group 3: Competitive Position and Growth - The company saw a 67% year-on-year decrease in lost items per 100,000 parcels, with complaints also declining, indicating improved service quality [5] - The average delivery time shortened by 7% to approximately 65 hours, enhancing the company's competitive edge and attracting more franchisees, which grew by about 22% to 36,000 [5] Group 4: Liquidity and Shareholder Returns - As of Q1, the company had cash and cash equivalents of 2.01 billion yuan, a 50% year-on-year increase, indicating strong liquidity [6] - The company plans to disclose its dividend strategy after the mid-term results, with expectations for continued shareholder returns due to its leading position in the express delivery sector and ability to adapt pricing and volume strategies [6]
中金：维持安能物流(09956)“跑赢行业”评级 目标价11港元