证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 21 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 联系人 板块表现： 快递 6 月数据明显分化，关注行业反内卷进程 投资评级： 看好（维持） —交通运输行业周报（2025 年 7 月 14 日-2025 年 7 月 20 日） 投资要点： 一、行业动态跟踪 快递物流： 1）各家快递公司发布 6 月经营业绩，顺丰业务量增速维持 30%+，"通达系"中圆 通增速保持领先。2025 年 6 月圆通/韵达/申通/顺丰完成业务量 26.27 / 21.73 /21 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the logistics industry [12] Core Insights - The logistics industry is experiencing a "DeepSeek moment" with significant technological breakthroughs across various segments, including branch, trunk, terminal, and management [4][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of adopting new technologies to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs, particularly in the express delivery sector [11][28] Summary by Sections Introduction: The Arrival of the "DeepSeek Moment" in the Logistics Industry - The logistics industry is witnessing substantial advancements due to improved algorithm efficiency and rapid technological iterations, leading to significant breakthroughs in various operational segments [7][18] - Key drivers for these advancements include the massive scale of the Chinese express delivery market, intense competition, and high labor cost ratios [28] Branch Segment: The Growth Year for Unmanned Logistics Vehicles - Leading express companies are initiating a surge in unmanned logistics vehicle orders, driven by reduced core component costs and improved algorithm efficiency [8][33] - The monthly operational cost of unmanned logistics vehicles can be as low as 2000 yuan, significantly lower than the average monthly salary of drivers [33][40] Trunk Segment: Smart Assisted Driving Initiates Mass Production - Smart assisted driving trucks are being deployed on a large scale by leading express companies, addressing safety and cost issues in traditional trunk transportation [9][32] - The potential market space for smart trucks is substantial, with projected sales of 1.03 million heavy trucks in 2024 [9] Terminal Segment: Mode Transformation Drives Cost Reduction - Express companies are innovating their terminal operations to reduce costs significantly, with models like direct linking from transfer centers to terminal stations [10][32] - The report highlights that if the direct link ratio reaches 40%, terminal costs could be reduced by 0.12 yuan per package [10] Management Segment: Digital Decision-Making Promotes Cost Reduction - Leading companies are developing industry-specific AI models to enhance management efficiency and reduce operational costs [10][32] - The integration of big data and AI technologies is driving improvements in decision-making and resource utilization [10] Investment Recommendations: Technological Waves Reshape Logistics Costs - The report recommends prioritizing investments in direct logistics companies and leading express firms, as well as components and operators related to unmanned commercial vehicles [11][32] - Companies like SF Express and Aneng Logistics are highlighted as key players benefiting from these technological advancements [11]

Summary of Logistics Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The logistics sector can be categorized into three types of companies: stable profit companies (e.g., SF Express), high-growth companies (e.g., Jitu), and operational improvement companies (e.g., Aneng Logistics) based on their self-owned cash flow ratio and capital expenditure growth rate [1][2][3]. Key Insights and Arguments - **SF Express** has shifted its strategy from diversification to focusing on the mid-to-high-end market, optimizing its cost structure and undergoing organizational changes, which has significantly improved its free cash flow and profitability. The company is expected to benefit from growth in the mid-to-high-end market and overseas resource integration [1][5][6]. - The **e-commerce express delivery industry** is experiencing intensified competition, leading to a reshuffling of market shares among leading companies. Despite short-term performance pressures, companies like ZTO and YTO are seen as having bottom-fishing value, while Jitu shows strong growth potential in emerging markets [1][7]. - **Aneng Logistics** has achieved counter-cyclical growth in the road freight market by focusing on high-profit small parcel business and internal management improvements. It is expected to achieve around 20% growth in Q2 2025 and for the full year, with mid-term dividend expectations acting as a catalyst for stock price [1][8][9]. - **Jitu** is rapidly expanding in Southeast Asia and South America, leveraging its cost-reduction experiences from the Chinese market. It is projected to capture over 30% market share in Southeast Asia by 2025 [1][7]. Important but Overlooked Content - The logistics sector is seeing a rise in new technology applications, including low-speed unmanned logistics vehicles, L2 level intelligent auxiliary driving trucks, unmanned stations, and delivery lockers, which are expected to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [3][11]. - The concentration of logistics in China and the decline in capital expenditure are providing strong cash flow support for the industry, while new technology applications are expected to drive growth [3][11]. - The investment strategy for 2025 focuses on companies with strong free cash flow and those leveraging new technologies for growth opportunities [2][10]. Conclusion - The logistics industry is poised for growth with a clear differentiation among companies based on their operational strategies and market positioning. Investors are encouraged to focus on stable profit companies, high-growth companies in emerging markets, and those showing operational improvements to capitalize on the evolving landscape [1][10].

Core Viewpoint - Aneng Logistics reported a revenue of approximately 2.587 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, and an adjusted net profit of about 242 million yuan, up 15.9% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Performance Metrics - The average delivery time improved to 65 hours as of March 2025, with the loss rate decreasing to 0.02 items per 100,000 and the complaint rate reduced to 33.2 complaints per 100,000 tickets [1] - The company maintained a network integration trend, with over 36,000 freight partners and agents by the end of March 2025, compared to approximately 29,400 a year earlier [1] - The total freight volume reached 3.05 million tons in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [1] Group 2: Revenue and Profitability - The revenue per ton for less-than-truckload (LTL) shipments was 850 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, with significant growth in mini and small ticket volumes by 27.4% and 12.1%, respectively [1] - The value-added service revenue per ton increased to 188 yuan, up 12.6% year-on-year, driven by the growth in small ticket volumes [1] - Gross profit for Q1 2025 was 410 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.11%, with a gross margin of 15.8%, down 0.26 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 3: Strategic Outlook - The company is expected to continue optimizing its regional structure and channel layout, enhancing end-service efficiency and quality, which may lead to stable growth in revenue per ton [2] - The gross margin for value-added services is expected to further improve, with the unit gross profit for value-added services rising to 142 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.0% [2] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the franchise-based nationwide LTL express market, with significant potential for profit improvement and business volume growth driven by franchisee ecosystem optimization [2]

5月26日，加盟制快运公司安能物流（HK09956，股价8.29港元，市值97.5亿港元）发布2025年一季度业 绩。财报显示，报告期内，公司实现营收25.87亿元，同比增长8.8%；经调整净利润2.42亿元，同比提 升15.9%，净利润率同比上升0.6个百分点至9.4%；零担货量达305万吨，同比增长5.9%。 这两年，我国零担物流市场竞争愈发激烈。零担货物运输，是指当一批货物的重量或容积不满一辆货车 时，可与其他几批甚至上百批货物共用一辆货车装运。 今年3月，广东顺心快运有限公司与深圳德坤供应链有限公司宣布正式达成战略合作，前者以5.5亿元战 略投资入股后者。去年以来，融辉、兴满物流等新玩家陆续进入大票零担赛道。与此同时，中通快运、 顺丰快运以及安能物流等老选手也在进一步争夺市场。 这直接导致安能物流在一季度运输服务单价同比下滑2.3%至432元/吨。对于行业竞争，安能物流首席运 营官金云5月27日在公司线上业绩会上向包括《每日经济新闻》在内的媒体表示，中通快运3月曾通过激 进价格策略短暂反超安能物流货量，但安能物流随即调整政策夺回优势。未来，安能物流将采取灵活价 格策略应对竞争，通过优化成本与效率保障利 ...

证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 06 | 月 02 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | | 8.21 | | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | | | 9.56/5.90 | | | 元） | | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | | 9,656.04 | | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | | 9,656.04 | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | 45.27 | | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | ...

2025年5月26日，安能物流发布第一季度业绩报告，以一份"全面增长"的成绩单，再次刷新了市场预 期。 一季度，安能物流零担货运总量达305万吨，同比增长5.9%；营收25.87亿元，同比增长8.8%，业务规模 稳步增长；经调整净利润同比增长15.9%至2.42亿元，经调整净利润率同比提升至9.4%。 在零担行业加速分化的背景下，安能物流打破了"规模不经济"的行业魔咒，那么，其是否进入了"击球 区"？ 一、三个层面的预期差 对于这个问题，笔者认为可以从三大关键预期差来加以说明。 1)行业层面 很多时候，有人会简单将安能物流放入到整个零担市场中来考量其成长性。这一点不能说错，但是至少 忽视了其所处的具体细分市场更具参考意义。 诚然，整个零担市场近年来有所萎缩，这在经济结构转型、物流景气度承压的背景下在所难免。但2024 年零担市场规模仍保持1.7万亿元，天花板足够高。 更重要的是，零担市场可以进一步细分为全网型、区域型以及专线型。在供应链愈发扁平化、碎片化的 环境下，全网型快运通过规模效应和优质服务实现了逆势增长。2024年，在区域型和专线型继续萎缩的 背景下，全网型快运规模同比增长14%。安能物流作为全网型快 ...

Summary of Aneng Logistics Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Aneng Logistics - **Industry**: Logistics and Freight Transportation Key Financial Performance - **Q1 2025 Revenue**: Increased by 8.8% year-on-year to 2.59 billion yuan [2][4] - **Adjusted Net Profit**: Grew by 15.9% to 240 million yuan, marking the best quarterly performance in recent years [2][4] - **Net Adjusted Profit Margin**: Reached 9.4% [2] - **Projected 2025 Revenue Growth**: Expected to be between 10% and 15% [2][4] - **Projected Adjusted Net Profit Growth**: Anticipated to grow by 20% [2][4] - **First Dividend Announcement**: Planned for mid-August, aiming to exceed industry peers in dividend ratio [2][4] Strategic Focus - **Volume Growth Strategy**: Focus on effective cargo volume growth, prioritizing small packages for profit enhancement while maintaining asset utilization through larger packages [2][5] - **Current Market Position**: Short-term growth is primarily driven by small packages, with an average weight of 75 kg and a price of approximately 850 yuan per ton [2][7] - **Market Dynamics**: The less-than-truckload (LTL) market is shifting from dedicated lines to a more networked approach due to supply chain fragmentation and economic pressures [2][17] Operational Insights - **Capital Expenditure for 2025**: Expected to be no more than 400 million yuan, primarily for replacing truck heads and automating distribution lines [3][18] - **Automation Implementation**: Automation equipment has been installed in three distribution centers, leading to a 7% reduction in costs at the Linyi center [3][19] - **Truck Replacement Plan**: Approximately 600 truck heads to be replaced, with over 50% equipped with auxiliary driving technology to reduce transportation costs [2][17][18] Competitive Landscape - **Market Share**: Aneng Logistics has increased its market share from 24% to 26-27% since 2022, competing closely with Zhongtong Express [15] - **Response to Competition**: Implementing pricing strategies to maintain a competitive edge against Zhongtong and integrating mid-tier players [15][16] Growth Drivers and Challenges - **Small Package Growth**: Significant growth in small packages (under 300 kg) with an 18.4% year-on-year increase [4][6] - **Cost Management**: General and administrative expenses are being controlled through measures such as reducing consulting fees and optimizing travel and procurement costs [14] - **Seasonal Demand**: The logistics industry is highly seasonal, with revenue growth expected to be driven by peak seasons [8] Additional Considerations - **Value-Added Services**: Increased demand for value-added services has led to higher unit costs, driven by a rise in small order volumes [11][12] - **Future Trends**: The logistics industry is expected to see further technological integration and a shift towards more automated processes [17][19] - **Market Adaptation**: The company is continuously adapting to seasonal consumer demands and exploring new growth avenues through targeted marketing [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - ANE (Cayman) reported strong financial results for 1Q25, with revenue and profit growth despite challenging market conditions, indicating resilience and effective strategic adjustments in the express freight industry [1][2][5]. Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 9% YoY to Rmb2.59 billion, while gross profit grew by 7% YoY to Rmb410 million [1]. - Attributable net profit rose by 20% YoY to Rmb226 million, and adjusted net profit increased by 16% YoY to Rmb242 million, with an adjusted net margin reaching a quarterly high of 9.4% [1]. - The firm’s cash and cash equivalents surged by 50% YoY to Rmb2.01 billion, indicating strong cash flow [4]. Market Trends - The express freight market is shifting towards high-margin small parcels, with volumes of parcels under 70kg increasing by 27% YoY [2]. - Total freight volume for less-than-truckload (LTL) services rose by 6% YoY to 3.045 million tonnes, with significant growth in mini freight and light freight categories [2]. Cost Structure and Profitability - Average selling price (ASP) for LTL services increased by 3% YoY to Rmb850 per tonne, while cost per tonne also rose by 3% YoY to Rmb715 [3]. - The unit gross profit per tonne rose by 2% YoY to Rmb135, reflecting improved profitability despite rising costs in certain service areas [3]. Competitive Position - The number of franchisees grew by approximately 22% YoY to 36,000, driven by improved product competitiveness and reduced parcel loss rates [4]. - ANE is positioned as a leading franchised express shipping company, capable of adjusting pricing and volume strategies in response to market dynamics [5]. Future Outlook - Earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly lowered by 4.6% and 1.5% to Rmb1.01 billion and Rmb1.22 billion, respectively, reflecting market conditions [6]. - The stock is currently trading at 10.0x and 8.2x adjusted P/E for 2025 and 2026, with a target price of HK$11.00, suggesting an 18.9% upside potential [6].

新玩家涌入，老玩家拼价，快运行业竞争正变得激烈。 值得一提的是，跨境电商平台正在为安能物流带来更多的业务增量。 财报显示，安能物流一季度电商货源占比提升至36%。在柔性化、个性化需求更强的跨境电商领域，安 能物流已成为TEMU国内头程的第一合作商，还与抖音、1688、拼多多等知名电商平台建立了紧密合作 关系。 不过今年以来，有不少涉及跨境业务的公司和平台也受到关税波动影响。对于关税政策可能带来的影 响，安能物流首席财务官徐昊表示，有些物流企业确实受到了关税影响，尤其是因为关税带来的进出口 商流的波动。不过对安能来说，公司受关税波动影响幅度比较有限。 他进一步表示，安能客户结构以国内电商商家、中小型工厂及商贸企业为主，安能物流的工厂客户中涉 及出口的企业比例低于市场及直营同行水平，且公司通过多元化客户布局分散风险。 5月26日，加盟制快运公司安能物流(09956.HK，股价8.68港元，市值102亿港元)发布2025年一季度业 绩。财报显示，报告期内，公司实现营收25.87亿元，同比增长8.8%；经调整净利润2.42亿元，同比提 升15.9%，净利润率同比上升0.6个百分点至9.4%；零担货量达305万吨，同比 ...