美债收益率飙升，反映出全球市场对美国经济担忧

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the U.S. Treasury market reflects a culmination of structural contradictions, exacerbated by a downgrade in the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's, leading to a sell-off and rising yields [1] Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yield Dynamics - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, marking the end of its highest rating since 1917, which triggered a market sell-off [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield surpassed 5% and the 10-year yield rose above 4.5%, reaching the highest levels since 2008 [1] - As of May, the total U.S. federal debt exceeded $36 trillion, accounting for over 120% of GDP, with interest payments projected to reach $1 trillion in the 2024 fiscal year, representing 22% of fiscal revenue [1] Group 2: Factors Driving Yield Increases - Concerns over U.S. debt sustainability have intensified due to recent trade policy adjustments, which have reduced foreign investors' holdings of U.S. Treasuries from 34% to 29% by the end of 2024 [2] - The potential introduction of "century bonds" to replace foreign-held Treasuries has further eroded investor confidence, contributing to rising yields [2] - The upcoming refinancing of approximately $2 trillion in maturing Treasuries in June has raised doubts about the market's ability to absorb these without prior credit crises [2] Group 3: Global Financial Market Impacts - The volatility in U.S. Treasury yields is reshaping international capital flows, with sovereign wealth funds and hedge funds adjusting their asset allocations, increasing the appeal of safe-haven assets like gold [3] - Emerging markets are facing dual pressures of capital outflows and currency depreciation, particularly those with high external debt dependency [3] - Despite short-term volatility, the U.S. Treasury market retains resilience due to its liquidity and depth, supported by the Federal Reserve's role as a "lender of last resort" [3] Group 4: Broader Economic Implications - The rise in Treasury yields reflects deeper concerns about potential stagflation in the U.S. economy, influenced by tariff impacts and the restructuring of global trade [5] - Countries with high dependency on U.S. debt, such as Japan, are likely to be the most affected, as evidenced by rising yields on Japanese bonds [4]