供需格局逐步改善，化工行业周期拐点渐近，多只概念股涨停

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is expected to experience a recovery in demand and a gradual elimination of outdated production capacity, leading to a potential upward trend in the industry cycle [1][3][6]. Group 1: Supply Side Dynamics - The capital expenditure of chemical listed companies is projected to decline starting in 2024, resulting in a decrease in fixed asset investment growth for chemical raw materials and products [3]. - The rapid expansion of chemical production capacity is anticipated to conclude by the second half of 2025 [3]. - The exit of outdated production capacity in Europe, driven by high energy costs and frequent uncontrollable events, is expected to alleviate global supply-demand imbalances for various chemical products [3]. - China's ongoing "energy conservation and carbon reduction" initiatives are likely to accelerate the elimination and transformation of high-energy-consuming outdated production capacity [3]. Group 2: Demand Side Factors - Favorable policies in China are expected to boost domestic demand for chemical products, with recent initiatives like the trade-in policy for consumer goods driving sales in the automotive and home appliance sectors [4]. - The Chinese government plans to enhance support for large-scale equipment upgrades and expand the variety and scale of trade-in policies by 2025, which is likely to further stimulate domestic chemical product demand [4]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs on direct exports of chemical products from China is considered limited, as the proportion of exports to the U.S. is relatively low compared to domestic production [5]. Group 3: Industry Cycle and Performance - In Q1 2025, the chemical industry showed mixed performance, with the petroleum and basic chemical sectors reporting revenues of 1,015.1 billion and 607 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -7.1% and 6.4% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the petroleum and basic chemical sectors was 17 billion and 37.1 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -23.5% and 4.7% [6]. - The gross profit margins for these sectors were at historical low levels, indicating a challenging environment [6]. - Analysts suggest that the recovery in oil prices and the ongoing domestic stimulus policies are likely to stabilize demand and improve the supply-demand balance, signaling a potential turning point for the chemical industry cycle by 2025 [6].