【国际经济观察】美联储降息会带来哪些冲击

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut is expected to have significant impacts on the global economy, necessitating preparedness from various sectors [2][3] - Recent statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the July monetary policy meeting minutes indicate a clear signal towards a shift in monetary policy, with a high likelihood of a rate cut in September [2][3] - From March 2022 to July 2023, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates 11 times, totaling an increase of 525 basis points, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at its highest level in 23 years [2] Group 2 - Market institutions are increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve will likely cut rates in September unless significant unexpected events occur [3] - Historical experiences show that a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy can lead to increased volatility in financial markets, as seen after the rate cut in July 2019 [3] - A rate cut could lead to fluctuations in exchange rates, impacting international trade costs and potentially exacerbating trade tensions, especially for countries competing with U.S. exports [4] Group 3 - The lowering of interest rates may increase the risk of asset bubbles globally, as lower borrowing costs and increased liquidity drive investors towards higher returns, potentially leading to speculative price increases [4][5] - A rate cut could stimulate global economic growth and investment activities, but it may also lead to excessive borrowing in some countries, raising global debt risks [5] - The release of liquidity during a rate cut phase often results in capital flowing into emerging markets, which can lead to political instability and heightened regional security concerns [5]