India's iPhone exports to the U.S. soared an estimated 76%. But Trump, Beijing won't make further growth easy

Core Viewpoint - Apple is adapting its supply chain by increasing iPhone shipments from India to the U.S. in response to trade tensions with China, with a significant year-on-year increase in shipments [1][2][5]. Group 1: Shipment Data - Shipments of iPhones from India to the U.S. rose 76% in April year-on-year, reaching approximately 3 million units, while shipments from China fell 76% to just 900,000 units [2][4]. - In March, India surpassed China in iPhone shipments to the U.S., indicating a shift in Apple's supply chain strategy ahead of tariff implementations [4]. Group 2: Supply Chain Adaptation - Apple has been investing in supply chains in India since the COVID-19 pandemic to prepare for potential disruptions from trade wars [3]. - The Trump administration's exemption of iPhones from reciprocal tariffs did not alter the trend of increasing shipments from India [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the recent surge, growth in India's iPhone shipments is expected to plateau as the country's manufacturing capacity may not meet U.S. demand, which is estimated at 20 million units per quarter [6][8]. - Analysts predict that India may only be able to match U.S. demand levels by 2026 [8]. Group 4: Challenges and Risks - Analysts highlight potential challenges for Apple in expanding its iPhone capacity in India due to protectionist measures from both Washington and Beijing [10][12]. - Trump's recent threats of imposing a 25% tariff on iPhone shipments could complicate Apple's strategy, as he insists on domestic manufacturing [11].