华尔街准备度假，市场却不答应？投资者警惕波动风险

Market Overview - The overall stock market has returned to early-year levels, but corporate earnings and consumer confidence indicators are showing signs of weakness [1] - Uncertainties in the market are largely stemming from Washington, particularly regarding tariff and tax policy disputes, with no short-term resolution in sight [1] Historical Summer Performance - Historical data from American Century Investments indicates that summer markets have recorded gains in 38 out of the last 50 years, with an average increase of approximately 3.9% from May 1 to October 31 [2] - Despite this positive historical performance, the current market conditions for the summer of 2025 present several warning signals, including a near 21 times forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500, approaching levels seen in the late 1990s [2] Current Market Sentiment - The first quarter earnings season showed strong performance, with 78% of S&P 500 companies exceeding earnings expectations, slightly above the five-year average of 77% [3] - However, there has been an increase in the mention of "recession" during earnings calls, marking the highest frequency since 2022 [3] - Analyst sentiment is also cautious, with Yardeni Research reporting the worst record in two years for the ratio of analysts raising versus lowering earnings and revenue forecasts [3] Key Events Impacting Summer Market - Ongoing disputes over tariffs and tax policies are contributing to market volatility, with significant fluctuations often following President Trump's trade policy announcements [3] - Upcoming trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan are set for May 30, with Japan seeking to expand investments in the U.S. and modify import regulations, although the U.S. remains cautious regarding auto tariffs [4] - The U.S. and EU trade talks have gained momentum after Trump backed off from imposing tariffs, but uncertainty remains among EU businesses regarding the outcome of these negotiations [4] Legislative Developments - A new tax and spending bill proposed by Republicans, referred to as the "Beautiful Bill," is facing resistance due to concerns over increasing the deficit, with key senators expressing the need for significant modifications [5] - The bond market is showing signs of unease, with 30-year Treasury yields exceeding 5%, nearing the highest levels since 2007 [5] Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain high short-term interest rates to combat inflation, with meetings scheduled for June 17-18 and July 29-30 [6] - Current market expectations suggest a greater than 70% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, but any unexpected rate cuts could lead to a stock market rebound unless economic data indicates a looming recession [6]