Core Viewpoint - Brazil's National Energy Policy Council (CNPE) decided to maintain the biodiesel blending ratio at 14% (B14), postponing the planned increase to 15% (B15) due to the need to balance energy security, environmental protection, and economic inflation [1] Group 1: Biodiesel Policy and Economic Impact - The adjustment of Brazil's biodiesel policy directly affects soybean oil prices and market demand, impacting soybean planting profitability [2] - The government aims to stabilize food prices as a priority, leading to a temporary halt of the B15 policy as a short-term measure to curb inflation [1][2] - The current inflation rate in Brazil is projected to reach 5.48% by early 2025, prompting the government to control food costs [1] Group 2: Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - Brazil's biodiesel policy is designed to ensure soybean oil demand, stimulating soybean planting and crushing industries, but it has led to a risk of 10 million tons of unsold soybeans due to reduced crushing volumes [2] - The domestic consumption of soybean oil is projected to reach 9.26 million tons, accounting for 77% of the expected production of 12 million tons in the 2024/25 season, creating a paradox of increased production without increased exports [6] - The reliance on a single market, such as India, increases export risks, and any fluctuations in India's domestic oil supply could reduce its import demand for Brazilian soybean oil [7] Group 3: Long-term Strategic Goals - Brazil's biodiesel industry has cumulatively reduced 240 million tons of CO2 over 20 years and aims to increase the blending ratio to 20% by 2030 under the Future Fuels Act [3] - The cost of biodiesel is 20%-30% higher than traditional diesel, with this premium ultimately borne by consumers, which could suppress consumption in an inflationary environment [3] - The government is encouraged to adopt a more flexible biodiesel blending policy that adjusts based on international soybean oil prices and domestic inflation rates [8] Group 4: Technological and Market Innovations - The industry is urged to accelerate the commercialization of second-generation biodiesel technologies, utilizing various waste oils and agricultural residues to reduce dependence on soybean oil [9] - Establishing a biodiesel technology innovation center through collaboration between academia and industry could enhance Brazil's competitiveness in the global biodiesel market [9] - The potential for biodiesel as a key raw material for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) presents an opportunity for Brazil to reshape its position in the global bioenergy landscape [9]
“减排目标”or“民生成本”？ 巴西生物柴油在博弈中沉浮
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-05-27 10:14