Doo Financial：如何利用美港股ETF捕捉行业轮动超额收益

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of ETFs as a tool for investors to navigate the fluctuating capital markets, highlighting the need to understand economic cycles for effective investment strategies [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Strategy - ETFs serve as a conductor's score, allowing ordinary investors to participate in industry rotations [1]. - A suggested ETF allocation strategy includes 50% in broad-based ETFs, 30% in sector-specific ETFs, and 20% for opportunistic investments [1]. - The "seasonal rotation model" recommends adjusting ETF allocations quarterly based on economic indicators and seasonal trends [3]. Group 2: Risk Management - Industry ETFs typically exhibit 1.5-2 times the volatility of broad indices, necessitating dynamic stop-loss strategies [3]. - The negative correlation between Hong Kong financial ETFs and U.S. regional bank ETFs can help smooth out volatility in a portfolio [3]. - Caution is advised regarding "pseudo-liquidity" traps in niche ETFs with low daily trading volumes, which may lead to price pressure during urgent sell-offs [3]. Group 3: Data-Driven Insights - Monitoring fund inflow intensity, relative strength indicators (RSI), and valuation percentiles can enhance the timing of ETF switches [5]. - Current indicators suggest that the Hong Kong medical ETF's PEG ratio is below its ten-year average, while institutional holdings in U.S. cloud computing ETFs are rising [5]. - The article stresses that superior returns come from a deep understanding of industry changes and efficient use of tools, distinguishing professional institutions from retail investors [5].