锡：供给端面临恢复性增产，强现实托底价格仍有韧性

Core Viewpoint - Tin prices have been experiencing narrow fluctuations since May, with a decrease in volatility, as major economies engage in tariff negotiations with the U.S., leading to a more relaxed trade dispute atmosphere [2] Supply Side Recovery Expectations - There is an expectation of supply recovery in tin production by 2025, primarily from Myanmar's Wa State, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) [3] - Myanmar's Wa State, which accounted for approximately 11% of global tin production, has resumed operations after a 21-month shutdown, with production expected to scale up by Q3 2024 [3] - Indonesia, the world's largest refined tin exporter, saw a significant recovery in exports, with March and April 2024 exports increasing by 50% and 58% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The DRC's Bijie tin mine, which contributes about 6% to global tin production, has resumed operations after a temporary shutdown due to armed conflict, although future disruptions remain a concern [4] Supply Side Tightness - The supply side remains tight, primarily due to the prolonged shutdown in Wa State, leading to a 48% year-on-year decline in tin ore imports to China from January to April 2024 [5] - Processing fees have dropped to historical lows, indicating a raw material shortage, with the latest processing fee reported at 12,700 yuan per ton [5] - China's tin production in March 2025 was 15,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.06%, with April production further declining by 8.13% [5] Demand Stability - Demand for tin remains robust, particularly driven by the semiconductor industry and the growth of photovoltaic installations, with a 19% year-on-year increase in solar cell production from January to April 2024 [6] - Traditional tin demand from sectors like tinplate and tin chemicals remains stable, primarily maintaining existing demand levels [6] - The latest social inventory of tin in China stands at 9,959 tons, with a reduction in inventory following a price drop in early April [7] Market Outlook - The tin market shows strong supply-side realities, with ongoing tightness in tin ore supply and a strong willingness among primary smelters to reduce production due to low processing fees [8] - The recovery of supply from Wa State, along with improved exports from Indonesia and the DRC, stabilizes global tin supply [8] - Demand is expected to remain strong, particularly from AI hardware and new energy sectors, although uncertainties exist due to potential global economic slowdowns stemming from trade conflicts [9] - Despite supply recovery pressures, the strong demand and tight supply conditions are likely to support tin prices in the medium term [9]