Upstart Stock Tanks 32% in 3 Months: Time to Hold or Book Loss?

Core Viewpoint - Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) has experienced a significant decline of 32.1% over the past three months, underperforming the broader Zacks Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, which fell by only 5.2% [1][5] Company Performance - UPST's stock has been more adversely affected compared to peers like SoFi Technologies (SOFI), LendingClub (LC), and Enova International (ENVA) [1] - The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month price/sales (P/S) multiple of 3.83X, which is higher than the industry average of 3.48X [6] - Compared to major fintech rivals, UPST trades at a premium to LendingClub (1.15X) and Enova International (0.7X), while being at a discount to SoFi Technologies (4.13X) [8] - Shares have dropped 53% from the 52-week high of $96.43, reached on February 13, and are down 26.5% year to date (YTD) [9] Market Context - The recent decline is attributed more to broader market headwinds, including a tech sell-off and fears of a global economic slowdown, rather than company-specific issues [5] - The decline is viewed as a painful correction rather than a fundamental weakness, suggesting potential long-term value [4][9] Technological Edge - Upstart Holdings utilizes artificial intelligence (AI) to assess borrower creditworthiness, moving beyond traditional FICO scores to include factors like education and employment history [10] - In Q1 2025, 92% of loans processed were fully automated, leading to faster approvals and lower operating costs [11] - The company is expanding into new verticals such as auto loans, HELOCs, and small-dollar emergency loans, with notable growth in auto loan originations (42% QoQ) and HELOCs (52% QoQ) [12] Innovation and Growth - Upstart's AI models are continuously evolving, with the latest model (Model 19) enhancing predictions by tracking borrowers' repayment stages [14] - The conversion rate has improved from 14% to 19% year over year, indicating effective technology [15] - Total revenues increased by 67% year over year to $213 million, with a non-GAAP EPS of 30 cents, a significant improvement from a loss of 31 cents in the previous year [16] Future Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 indicates a robust year-over-year revenue growth of 59%, with an EPS forecast of $1.46, up from a loss of 20 cents in 2024 [17] - Despite trading at a relatively high valuation, the core growth story remains intact, suggesting that holding the stock may be advisable for long-term investors [18]