DGKG(SZ:000828) Zheng Quan Zhi Xing·2025-05-27 15:05Investment Highlights - Dongguan Holdings focuses on its core highway business, with expected substantial dividends from 2025 to 2027. The company has seen its total revenue grow from 1.097 billion to 1.692 billion yuan from 2015 to 2024, with a CAGR of 4.93%. Cumulatively, the company has distributed 3.108 billion yuan in cash dividends during the same period, and it commits to a minimum annual cash dividend of 0.475 yuan per share for the next three years, provided profits are positive and cash flow supports ongoing operations [1][2]. Competitive Advantages - The core asset of the company is the Dongguan-Shenzhen Expressway, strategically located in the Pearl River Delta, serving as a vital link between Guangzhou, Dongguan, and Shenzhen. From 2015 to 2024, toll revenue from this expressway increased from 930 million to 1.32 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 3.9%, and traffic volume rose from 66.7 million to 125.53 million vehicles, with a CAGR of 7.3%. The ongoing expansion project is expected to enhance traffic capacity significantly upon completion in December 2028 [2]. Strategic Diversification - The company is exploring a diversified strategy, including financial investments and new energy initiatives. Its financial services encompass commercial factoring and leasing, with projected gross margins exceeding 50% in 2024. However, the factoring business faced a net loss of 28 million yuan due to impairment provisions. In the new energy sector, revenue from electric vehicle charging services is expected to reach 86 million yuan in 2024, although margins are under pressure due to declining demand and competitive challenges [3]. Profit Forecast - The company anticipates net profits of 812 million, 856 million, and 888 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -15.0%, 5.4%, and 3.8%. The current price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 13.1, 12.4, and 11.9 times for the respective years. Comparable companies include China Merchants Highway, Ninghu Expressway, and Sichuan Chengyu [3].