Core Viewpoint - Miniso's high gross profit margin is showing signs of strain as the company faces challenges in maintaining profitability despite revenue growth [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In Q1, Miniso reported revenue of 4.427 billion yuan, an 18.9% year-on-year increase, but net profit fell by 4.8% to 587 million yuan, leading to a net profit margin decline of 3.3 percentage points to 13.3% [2] - The company's revenue has grown 1.5 times over the past two years, with 2,200 new stores opened, and overseas store growth consistently outpacing domestic growth [9] Market Position and Strategy - Miniso's optimistic outlook on same-store sales contrasts with market skepticism, as the company aims for a revenue growth acceleration in the latter half of the year [4] - The company is transitioning from a low-cost brand to a "global IP co-branded store," which has raised expectations for international expansion [7][8] Operational Challenges - The increase in revenue without corresponding profit growth is seen as a potential warning sign, with significant investments in IP licensing and a shift in business strategy [5][6] - The company has adopted a three-pronged store opening strategy: partner model, direct operation model, and agency model in overseas markets [10] International Expansion - Miniso's overseas direct stores have increased to 548, more than doubling in two years, with a focus on the North American market [11] - However, the rapid expansion of overseas direct stores has led to increased upfront costs, impacting short-term profitability [12] Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic market is showing signs of saturation, particularly in first- and second-tier cities, with a projected store penetration rate of 66% [15] - Same-store sales growth is declining, with a shift from a 30-35% growth rate in 2023 to an expected 8-9% decline in 2024 [16] IP Strategy and Risks - Miniso's reliance on IP products has increased, with IP product sales contributing significantly to revenue, but the associated costs are rising [23][26] - The company faces challenges in balancing the cost of IP licensing with consumer price sensitivity, especially in a competitive market [25][27] Capital Management - Financial costs have nearly doubled year-on-year, with the company issuing $550 million in convertible bonds and facing increased debt levels [32][42] - Miniso's acquisition of Yonghui Superstores has raised questions about its impact on profitability, despite the stock price increase since the acquisition [40][41] Future Outlook - The potential IPO of TOP TOY could alleviate some financial pressures on Miniso while expanding its market presence [43][46] - The company aims to maintain double-digit growth in the domestic market, focusing on same-store sales rather than aggressive new store openings [17][19]
利润降回2年前，名创优品财报裂缝中的“生长痛”