Why Marvell's AI Revenue Could Top $4 Billion By 2025, Analyst Explains

Core Viewpoint - JP Morgan analyst Harlan Sur maintains an Overweight rating on Marvell Technology, Inc. with a price forecast of $130, citing strong market leadership in optical connectivity and solid growth outlook in AI/Networking [1] Group 1: Earnings Expectations - Marvell is set to report earnings, with expectations of continued volume ramp from Amazon's Trainium 2 ASIC and Google's Axion ARM CPU programs, alongside strong demand for 800G products and initial ramp of 1.6T optical DSPs [2] - The analyst anticipates April quarter results of $1.875 billion (up 3% Q/Q) and July quarter guidance of over $2.00 billion (up 7% Q/Q), driven by data center growth and cyclical improvements [3] Group 2: AI and Optical Business - Marvell's AI ASIC MAIA Gen 2-3nm program is on track for ramp-up in 2026, with solid orders and shipments for 800G PAM4 optical DSPs and increasing ramp of 1.6T DSPs expected in the second half of the year [4] - The company is projected to drive $4 billion in AI revenues this year (ASICs + networking), representing over 2x year-over-year growth, with a strong growth profile extending into 2026 [5] Group 3: Automotive and Custom Data Center - The divestiture of the automotive business, expected to close in 2025, will create a revenue headwind of $225-$250 million in fiscal year 2026 but is expected to enhance Marvell's earnings power by $0.05-$0.10 [6] - The custom data center and AI ASIC pipeline is continuing to expand, indicating ongoing growth potential [6] Group 4: Stock Performance - Marvell's stock was trading higher by 5.69% to $64.15 at the last check [6]