证券研究报告 迈威尔科技 (MRVL US) 进一步上修 FY27 光互连产品增速 2026 年 3 月 09 日│美国 半导体 Marvell 发布 FY2026 业绩，公司全年实现收入 81.95 亿美元（yoy：+42%）； Non-GAAP 净利润 24.66 亿美元（yoy：+79%）。其中，4QFY26 实现营 收 22.19 亿美元（yoy：+22%，qoq：+7%），归母净利润 6.85 亿美元 （yoy+29%，qoq+5%），均略超彭博一致预期（22.08/6.78 亿美元）。业 绩会上，公司表示光模块 DSP 等光互连产品需求持续旺盛，并对定制芯片 业务进展表述乐观，上修 FY2027/2028 总收入指引，业绩发布后首个交易 日公司股价上涨 18.35%。公司持续受益 AI 算力快速增长拉动的光互连需求 高景气度，且公司已陆续完成对 Celestial AI 和 XConn 收购，有望进一步扩 展公司在 Scale-up 领域业务布局，带来新成长驱动力，维持"增持"。 光互连产品持续引领数据中心业务增长，上调 FY27/28 收入指引 4QFY26 公司数据中心业务实现营收 16.5 ...

Market Overview - U.S. stocks experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones index dropping over 450 points, and the S&P 500 losing 2% while the Dow fell 3% last week [1][5] - The tech-heavy Nasdaq also saw a decrease of 1.2% during the week [1] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices surged to their highest levels since October 2023, with crude oil rallying nearly 35% for the week, marking the largest weekly gain in commodity trading history [2] - Qatar's energy minister indicated that oil could exceed $150 if the Strait of Hormuz were to close completely [2] Economic Data Insights - U.S. retail sales fell by 0.2% in January, slightly better than the market estimate of a 0.3% decline [3] - The U.S. economy lost 92,000 nonfarm payrolls in February 2026, a significant drop from January's revised job gains of 126,000 and below the expected 59,000 [4] - The unemployment rate increased from 4.3% to 4.4%, surpassing forecasts [4] - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% month-over-month, matching January's pace and exceeding consensus estimates of 0.3% [4] Sector Performance - Most sectors on the S&P 500 closed negatively, with consumer discretionary, materials, and information technology stocks experiencing the largest losses [5] - In contrast, energy and consumer staples stocks closed higher, defying the overall market trend [5]

Market Overview - The week saw significant declines in major U.S. indexes, with the S&P 500 down 2%, the Dow falling 3%, and the Nasdaq losing 1.2%, marking the worst week for the Dow since April 2025 [2] - On Friday, the Dow dropped 453 points to close at 47,501, the S&P 500 fell 1.33% to 6,740, and the Nasdaq decreased by 1.59% to 22,387, driven by a poor jobs report and surging oil prices [3] Employment Data - Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 92,000 in February, a significant miss, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.4%. Job losses were primarily in health care and information sectors, with federal government employment down 330,000 since October 2024 [4] Oil Market Dynamics - WTI crude oil surged 35.63%, the largest weekly gain in the history of the futures contract, closing at $90.90 per barrel. Brent oil increased by approximately 28%, marking its biggest weekly gain since the early pandemic [5] - The Strait of Hormuz faced significant disruptions due to Iranian forces targeting energy infrastructure, with Qatar halting LNG production and Saudi Arabia shutting its largest refinery. This situation has led to concerns about genuine supply disruptions, with potential oil prices reaching $150 per barrel if conditions persist [5] Sector Performance - The energy sector was the only one showing positive movement, while materials fell about 7%, and Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Industrials were down roughly 5% [7] - The VIX index closed at 29.49, up more than 24% on the day, indicating a return of market fear [7] Market Sentiment and Outlook - The market faces a complex setup with ongoing geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices posing inflation risks, and a weak labor market. The Federal Reserve is likely to remain inactive in response to these challenges [8] - Historical trends suggest that markets can recover from geopolitical shocks, but the current combination of high oil prices and a weakening labor market presents unique challenges [9]

证 券 研 究 报 告 Marvell Technology（MRVL）FY26Q4 业绩点评及业绩说明会纪要 ❖ 评论： 1. 营收情况：FY26Q4 营收为 22.19 亿美元（QoQ+7%，YoY+22%），由于数据 中心终端市场的强劲需求，营收超过了预期中值。 2. 下游营收拆分：（1）数据中心市场：FY26Q4 营收 16.51 亿美元（QoQ+9%， YoY+21%），营收超出预期，主要得益于互连产品组合需求的增长。公司所有 关键产品线均实现了环比增长，包括光互连、定制芯片、交换机和存储。公司 预计 FY27Q1 数据中心营收环比增长约 10%，其中包括本地部署数据中心营 收的季节性环比下降。（2）通信和其他终端市场业务： FY26Q4 营收 5.67 亿 美元（QoQ+2%，YoY+26%），公司预计第一季度环比增长率将保持在较低个 位数，同比增长约 30%。 3. 毛利率：FY26Q4 公司 Non-GAAP 毛利率为 59.0%（QoQ-0.7pct，YoY-1.1pct）， GAAP 毛利率为 51.7%，超过业绩指引中值。 4. 库存：FY26Q4 公司库存 13.9 亿美元，较上季度增 ...

Core Viewpoint - Concerns regarding Marvell Technology's potential loss of major customers like Amazon and Microsoft to competitors were exaggerated, as recent earnings reports indicate strong customer commitment and growth prospects in the data-center segment [1][2]. Group 1: Customer Retention and Growth - Marvell's stock experienced a significant decline of 20% due to fears of losing key hyperscaler clients, but recent earnings show strong bookings and design wins, indicating that these customers are deepening their commitments rather than defecting [1]. - The company reported Q4 data-center revenue of $1.5 billion, with a projected growth rate of 40% for fiscal 2027 and nearly 50% for fiscal 2028, highlighting a robust demand for its products [1][2]. - Marvell's CEO emphasized strong bookings for their 1.6T solutions, which are critical for AI training clusters, and expects rapid revenue growth in fiscal 2027 and beyond [1]. Group 2: Technological Leadership and Product Development - Marvell is recognized for its first-to-market technology in high-speed optical and electrical interconnects, which are essential for scaling data-center bandwidth [1]. - The company has secured over 20 design wins across the top four U.S. hyperscalers, with production expected to ramp up by fiscal 2028-2029, indicating a strong alignment with customer needs [1]. - Marvell's revenue mix is shifting towards higher-value interconnect and custom solutions, with custom revenue projected to grow over 20% in fiscal 2027 and double in 2028 [1]. Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - The evidence from Marvell's Q4 report suggests that customers are not seeking alternatives but are instead increasing their reliance on Marvell's ecosystem, countering earlier analyst fears [1]. - The company anticipates a run-rate exceeding $3 billion by the end of fiscal 2027, driven by rapid customer adoption and program scale-up [1]. - Overall, Marvell appears well-positioned to expand its presence in the AI market, with a clear path to growth in custom and interconnect revenue [2].

AI产业链研究 . 围绕人工智能展开研究，涵盖基础设施、算法及应用等多个方面，同时也会分享研究过程中的一些心得 体会 关于CPO（共封装光学）的应用前景，当前市场观点存在显著分歧。这一分歧，从Marvell 和Broadcom 两家公司的管理层最新表态中，就能清晰看出来。 作为通信连接领域的两大玩家，可以说，两家公司的战略倾向会直接影响市场对CPO的预期。在进入分 析他们的立场之前，我们先梳理一下两家公司最新财报的核心表现——Marvell发布财报后，股价暴涨 18%，投资者对其业绩与未来布局的认可度可见一斑；而Broadcom虽股价涨幅仅3%，但其关于"2027年 AI相关收入将突破1000亿美元"的表态，已获得市场广泛认可。 财报背后，两家公司对CPO的态度差异更为突出，具体立场如下： Marvell无疑对CPO的应用前景持极度乐观态度，明确看好CPO的短期部署前景（预计2027年启动部 署，到2029年收入将攀升至10亿美元），并认为通过收购Celestial AI等举措，CPO将成为AI规模扩张 的关键支撑。 相比之下，Broadcom则将CPO视为未来可选方向而非当务之急，更倾向于通过铜缆技术的延伸 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 Marvell Technology（MRVL）FY26Q4 业绩点评及业绩说明会纪要 单季与财年收入双创记录，需求强劲上调 FY27-28 指引 ❖ 事项： 2026 年 3 月 5 日 Marvell Technology 发布 FY2026Q4 报告，并召开业绩说明 会。公司 FY26Q4 截至 2026年 1 月 31 日，下文中统一采用财季表述为 FY26Q4。 ❖ 评论： 1. 营收情况：FY26Q4 营收为 22.19 亿美元（QoQ+7%，YoY+22%），由于数据 中心终端市场的强劲需求，营收超过了预期中值。 2. 下游营收拆分：（1）数据中心市场：FY26Q4 营收 16.51 亿美元（QoQ+9%， YoY+21%），营收超出预期，主要得益于互连产品组合需求的增长。公司所有 关键产品线均实现了环比增长，包括光互连、定制芯片、交换机和存储。公司 预计 FY27Q1 数据中心营收环比增长约 10%，其中包括本地部署数据中心营 收的季节性环比下降。（2）通信和其他终端市场业务： FY26Q4 营收 5.67 亿 美元（QoQ+2%，YoY+26%），公司预计第一季度环比 ...

Core Insights - Broadcom has seen a significant increase of 524% since January 2023, driven by $8.4 billion in quarterly AI revenue, while Marvell has increased by 152% during the same period, with Q3 revenue of $2.07 billion and a 38% year-over-year growth in data center revenue to $1.52 billion [1] Company Performance - Broadcom's AI revenue is four times larger than Marvell's total revenue, highlighting the scale difference between the two companies [1] - Marvell experienced a decline of over 50% in stock price after a disappointing quarter in March but has since rebounded with strong quarterly performances [1] - Marvell's data center revenue now constitutes 73% of its total revenue, indicating a strong focus on this segment [1] Valuation Metrics - Broadcom trades at approximately 69x trailing earnings and 32x forward PE, with a target price of $467, while Marvell trades at about 27x trailing earnings and 23x forward PE, with a consensus target of $118 against a current price of $89.57 [1] - Marvell's higher beta of nearly 2.0 suggests it is more volatile compared to Broadcom, which has earned its premium through scale and execution [1] Market Dynamics - Both companies are positioned in the custom silicon market, catering to hyperscalers who seek tailored chips for their workloads, with Broadcom serving Google and Marvell serving Amazon Web Services [1] - Analysts will closely monitor Marvell's data center momentum, custom silicon pipeline, and relationship with Amazon to assess whether the performance gap with Broadcom narrows in the future [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America upgraded Marvell Technology from neutral to buy, raising the price target from $90 to $110 following strong fiscal fourth-quarter results that led to a 16% surge in shares [1][2] Financial Performance - Marvell reported fiscal 2026 revenue of $8.19 billion, a record high, representing a 42% year-over-year increase [3][7] - Fourth-quarter revenue reached $2.219 billion, exceeding Marvell's guidance midpoint [3][7] - Non-GAAP earnings per share for the quarter were $0.80, slightly above the Wall Street consensus estimate of $0.79 [4][7] - Full-year fiscal 2026 non-GAAP EPS was $2.84, reflecting an 81% year-over-year increase [7] Business Segments - The data center segment accounted for 74% of total revenue, with quarterly revenue of $1.65 billion, marking a record [6][7] - Custom silicon revenue grew from near zero to $1.5 billion in one fiscal year, doubling in fiscal 2026 [6] - CEO Matt Murphy projected that custom revenue would grow over 20% in fiscal 2027 and potentially double again in fiscal 2028 [6] Market Reaction - Following the earnings call, Marvell shares spiked to around $90, up approximately 20% from the previous close of $75.68 [4]

Core Viewpoint - B. Riley has raised the price target for Marvell (MRVL) to $135 from $130 while maintaining a Buy rating on the shares, indicating positive sentiment towards the company's performance and future prospects [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Marvell's Q4 results and Q1 guidance have exceeded consensus expectations, showcasing strong performance [1]. - The growth is attributed to robust momentum in the Data Center's Custom Compute, Optics, and Switch businesses [1]. Group 2: Business Drivers - The success is also linked to the scaling of XPU and XPU attach programs, which are contributing to the company's growth trajectory [1].