美财政部拟下调SLR刺激债市 市场警惕“治标不治本”风险

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary is advocating for a reform plan to lower the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) for banks, which could significantly impact the bond market and potentially reduce long-term U.S. Treasury yields, thereby lowering financing costs for businesses and households and promoting economic growth [1][2]. Group 1: SLR Reform and Its Implications - The SLR was established in 2014 to require banks to hold a certain ratio of high-quality capital to mitigate potential risks, with a minimum of 5% for Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) and 3% for other banks [2]. - Lowering the SLR could allow banks to hold more U.S. Treasuries or increase lending without violating capital requirements, which may alleviate market pressure [2][3]. - Treasury Secretary indicated that discussions among the three main banking regulators are progressing quickly, with potential results expected by summer [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Concerns - Recent uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's tariff policies has led to concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability, resulting in a sell-off of Treasuries, with the 30-year Treasury yield reaching 5.09%, the highest since October 2023 [2]. - The government's commitment to controlling long-term Treasury yields further supports market expectations for SLR reform [3]. - Some analysts express skepticism about the effectiveness of the SLR reduction, suggesting that banks may prefer short-term Treasury bills over longer-duration bonds, indicating that long-term yields may still require other stabilizing forces [3]. Group 3: Market Response to External Factors - Following indications from the Japanese government about potential adjustments to long-term bond issuance, the U.S. Treasury market saw a significant rebound, with the 30-year yield dropping by 9.7 basis points to below 4.94% and the 10-year yield falling to 4.43% [4].