特朗普“释放利好”，欧洲有“新思路”，但报道称“关键障碍仍在，达成良好协议的可能性仍然很小”

Core Viewpoint - The trade tensions between the US and EU are showing signs of easing, with President Trump shifting from a 50% tariff threat to a more conciliatory stance, leading to a significant rise in US stock markets [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil emphasized the need for a quick resolution to the trade issues and expressed cautious optimism about reaching an agreement, highlighting the importance of a united EU response to US tariff threats [2]. - The trade relationship thawed dramatically within five days, with Trump delaying the implementation of the proposed tariffs from June 1 to July 9 after a positive conversation with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen [3]. - The EU is adjusting its trade strategy to focus on key sectors such as metals, automobiles, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and civil aircraft, which are currently facing US tariff threats [3]. Group 2: Economic Context - Despite the apparent easing of tensions, the outlook for negotiations remains uncertain, as the US-EU trade deficit has doubled this year, driven by companies stockpiling goods ahead of potential tariffs [4]. - The EU's proposed solutions to reduce tariffs on various goods were rejected by the US, leading to further threats of increased tariffs from Trump [4]. Group 3: EU Preparedness - The EU has prepared retaliatory measures, including approved tariffs on US goods worth €210 billion (approximately $238 billion), targeting politically sensitive states [5]. - Additionally, the EU is preparing an extra tariff list covering €950 billion worth of US products, including Boeing aircraft, US-made cars, and bourbon whiskey [5]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Many EU officials believe that some of Trump's tariffs may persist in the long term, and the likelihood of reaching an ideal agreement remains low, particularly regarding US demands that could undermine EU regulatory and tax autonomy [6]. - The core logic of Trump's trade strategy—threats, concessions, and renewed threats—remains unchanged, with the resolution of this transatlantic trade crisis expected by July 9 [7].