Group 1 - The current egg market is characterized by abundant supply, weak demand, and intensified cost competition, with a focus on the transmission of profits to capacity [1] - The egg fundamental cycle is qualitatively divided into four stages: prosperity, pressure, clearing, and recovery, with the current position identified as the pressure phase, indicating downward pressure on profits [1] - Historical analysis from 2019-2020 shows that after capacity expansion broke the supply-demand balance, egg prices fell sharply, leading to industry losses and subsequent capacity reduction [1] Group 2 - The egg futures market in 2024 mirrors the patterns observed in 2019-2020, with a shift from Back to Contango structure following the peak in egg prices [2] - The current egg industry has experienced four consecutive years of profitability, enhancing its risk resistance, while supply pressure on near-month contracts is increasing [2] - The price spread between near and far-month contracts is significantly higher compared to 2020, indicating a likelihood of continued decline in the future [2] Group 3 - Historical data indicates a negative correlation between the duration of price declines during the plum rain season and the rebound time after the Spring Festival, suggesting prolonged price drops this year [3] - The expected low point for egg prices during the plum rain season in 2025 is projected to occur around early July, based on past trends [3] - The futures market often experiences "running ahead" behavior, with price lows typically appearing about a month in advance during the plum rain season [3] Group 4 - Three strategies are recommended: a short-selling strategy before the plum rain season, an arbitrage strategy due to the near-weak and far-strong structure, and an industry strategy focusing on corn and soybean meal contracts while shorting egg contracts [4]
供需过剩 鸡蛋“卖近买远”正当其时
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-05-28 01:16