消费“成绩单”亮眼！未来消费复苏动能如何？

Group 1: Economic Policy and Consumer Trends - The core theme for 2025 is to boost consumption, with a focus on domestic demand and internal circulation as unique advantages of the economy [1] - The "Domestic Circulation Work Promotion Meeting" emphasized the need to tap into potential consumption, upgrade bulk consumption, and stimulate service consumption [1] - April's consumer data showed a positive trend, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 4.7% year-on-year in the first four months, slightly accelerating from the first quarter [2] Group 2: Retail Performance and E-commerce Growth - Retail sales of household appliances and related categories saw significant growth in April, with categories like home appliances and audio-visual equipment increasing by 38.8% year-on-year [4] - Online retail sales of physical goods grew by 5.8% in the first four months, continuing to outpace overall retail sales growth [4] Group 3: Promotional Events and Policy Support - The "618" shopping festival began a week early on May 13, 2025, combining with the "old-for-new" policy to invigorate the consumer market [5] - The subsidy range for the "old-for-new" policy expanded from 8 to 12 categories of home appliances, with subsidy rates increased to 15%-20% [5] - Sales of home appliances increased by 4.7% online and 12.8% offline following the implementation of the policy [5] Group 4: International Consumption and Tax Policies - The optimization of the departure tax refund policy is expected to stimulate inbound consumption, with the threshold for refunds lowered from 500 yuan to 200 yuan [7][8] - The number of inbound tourists is projected to reach 130 million in 2024, with cultural and tourism consumption becoming a new growth point [8] - A dual-driven consumption model combining goods and services is emerging, providing broader value opportunities for the consumer sector [9]