国际金价跌破关键支撑位，美联储加息预期叠加美元走强致黄金暴跌

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to reduced market risk appetite, stronger dollar, and technical breakdowns, leading to significant sell-offs and volatility in the gold market [3][4][5]. Current Price Dynamics - As of May 27, 2025, international spot gold prices fell to $3,300.46 per ounce, a decrease of 1.25%, while COMEX gold futures closed at $3,299.70 per ounce, down 1.27%. This marks the second time gold has dropped below the critical psychological level of $3,300 since a significant correction on April 23 [1]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also retreated, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Miao seeing prices drop from approximately ¥1,022 per gram to around ¥987 per gram, with a single-day decline of up to ¥16 per gram [3]. Key Drivers of Decline - The easing of market risk appetite is driven by progress in trade negotiations between the U.S. and Europe, as well as a reduction in geopolitical tensions, prompting investors to shift from gold to riskier assets like stocks and commodities [3]. - Expectations of a less aggressive Federal Reserve and a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields have increased the opportunity cost of holding gold [3]. - A stronger dollar, influenced by Japan's stable bond market policy, has diminished the appeal of gold priced in dollars [3]. - Technical factors, including a double-top formation near $3,350, triggered stop-loss orders and forced liquidations among leveraged investors, contributing to panic selling [3][4]. Future Outlook - Short-term risks indicate that if gold prices fall below the support level of $3,280, they could further decline to $3,245 or even $3,200. A rebound would require breaking through the resistance zone of $3,330-$3,350 [5]. - Long-term support remains from global central banks' continuous gold purchases, with 2024 projected purchases reaching 1,045 tons, and the U.S. national debt surpassing $40 trillion [5]. - Institutional views are mixed, with Goldman Sachs maintaining a year-end target of $3,700, citing de-dollarization trends, while Citigroup expects gold prices to oscillate between $3,000 and $3,300, cautioning against potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy [5]. Consumer and Investor Reactions - Investor behavior shows a mix of buying on dips for gold bars or ETFs, while leveraged traders face losses due to price volatility, leading to a "gold rush" in markets like Shenzhen's Shui Bei [6]. - Some consumers express skepticism about the term "sharp decline," noting that domestic gold jewelry prices remain above ¥700 per gram and are waiting for prices to drop below ¥600 before entering the market [6].