【百利好指数专题】关税出现转机 美股绝处逢生

Core Viewpoint - The market has shown significant distrust since Trump's election, with major indices experiencing substantial declines, but a recent agreement to pause tariffs has led to a rebound in stock prices, although the underlying crisis remains unresolved [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The Dow Jones has seen a maximum decline of over 18%, the Nasdaq over 26%, and the S&P 500 over 21%, with both the Dow and S&P entering a technical bear market [1]. - Following the agreement to suspend tariffs and reduce 91% of them, the major stock indices have begun a strong rebound, recovering most of their losses [1]. Group 2: Political Context - Trump's suspension of tariffs is viewed as a temporary measure to alleviate internal and external pressures, with his approval ratings dropping significantly since taking office [3]. - A recent poll indicated that even after the tariff agreement, Trump's approval rating fell to 42%, reflecting ongoing public skepticism about his economic performance [3]. Group 3: Economic Concerns - The liquidity crisis in the U.S. financial system persists, with a significant drop in the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreements from $2.2 trillion to under $200 billion, indicating a depletion of excess liquidity [4]. - Despite the tariff agreement, concerns about liquidity remain, with the market anticipating that the Fed may not lower interest rates in the short term due to inflation worries [4]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The Dow Jones is currently in a dense trading area, with support at the 40,830 level, while the Nasdaq shows a bullish trend with support at 20,600 [5]. - The S&P 500 has surpassed long-term moving averages but faces short-term pullback pressure, with support at 5,720 [5].