BBMarkets蓝莓外汇：美联储“三把手”警告，通胀预期是“暗雷“

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve must take decisive and strong policy actions to address inflation deviations from targets, especially in the context of rising trade protectionism and tariffs under the Trump administration [1][3] Group 1: Inflation Management - Inflation expectations management is a core pillar of modern central bank policy frameworks [1] - Historical experience indicates that the root causes of persistent inflation often stem from unanchored expectations, and the cost of restoring these expectations can rise exponentially [1][3] Group 2: Supply Chain and Geopolitical Risks - Supply chain disruptions and geopolitical risks significantly impact inflation dynamics, with the COVID-19 pandemic causing notable supply shocks that increase economic uncertainty [3] - The public's perception of future prices may undergo nonlinear changes due to sudden shocks [3] Group 3: Trade Policy Impact - The trade policies under the Trump administration complicate Federal Reserve decision-making, as tariffs exert pressure on the economy through both imported inflation and demand suppression [3] - The Federal Reserve has been assessing the lagged effects of trade policies on inflation since maintaining the benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range since December of the previous year [3] Group 4: Financial System Resilience - Current data from the New York Fed indicates that the banking system has sufficient reserves to withstand potential shocks, providing an important buffer for the market [3] - Adequate liquidity reserves will determine the financial system's resilience in the face of "black swan" events [3] Group 5: Policy Forward Guidance - The Federal Reserve emphasizes a data-dependent approach, avoiding overreaction to temporary fluctuations while guarding against the accumulation of potential risks [3] - The most effective policy is proactive expectation management rather than reactive crisis response [3]