“财政悬崖” 逼近，美债危机与全球货币体系重构逻辑

Group 1 - The current U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 120% [1] - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, indicating concerns over fiscal sustainability [1] - The U.S. fiscal deficit reached $1.147 trillion in the first five months of fiscal 2025, a 38% year-on-year increase, with interest payments rising 10% to $478 billion [1] Group 2 - Short-term predictions for 30-year U.S. Treasury yields are expected to remain between 5% and 5.5%, while 10-year yields are projected to fluctuate between 4.5% and 5% [2] - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for 10-year Treasury yields to 4.5%, driven by sustained economic growth and a tight labor market [2] - Long-term projections suggest that if the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 130%, 10-year yields could challenge 6% [2] Group 3 - High Treasury yields are expected to impact global financial markets, leading to a revaluation of corporate debt and increased financing costs [4] - The weakening of U.S. Treasury credit may accelerate diversification of foreign exchange reserves among central banks [4] - U.S. unilateral tariffs are causing trade partners to retaliate, increasing global supply chain costs and potentially reducing global economic growth [4] Group 4 - China is advised to reduce its concentration in U.S. Treasuries by increasing allocations to gold and non-U.S. sovereign debt [6] - There is a focus on reducing long-term U.S. Treasury exposure and increasing investments in inflation-protected securities [6] - China is encouraged to promote the expansion of the IMF and the use of multilateral clearing systems to decrease reliance on the U.S. dollar [6]