日本出手，美国“获救”

Core Viewpoint - Japan's unconventional operations have triggered a global financial market response, leading to a temporary alleviation of the "trust crisis" in U.S. assets as indicated by rising dollar, U.S. stocks, and bonds, with 10-year U.S. Treasury yields falling below 4.5% and 30-year yields dropping below 5% for the first time since last year [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Japanese Finance Ministry's issuance of a survey to market participants regarding bond issuance and market conditions signals a potential policy shift [2]. - Reports suggest Japan may consider reducing the issuance of long-term bonds to ease market pressure, addressing the recent surge in long-term bond yields [2]. - The combination of the survey and potential bond issuance cuts is seen as a direct response to the global asset sell-off driven by rising Japanese bond yields [2]. Group 2: Effects on U.S. Markets - The demand for U.S. Treasuries has structurally shifted as the potential decrease in Japanese long-term bond issuance compels global investors to focus on U.S. bonds, leading to a significant reduction in asset sell-off [3]. - The decline in long-term bond yields has restored confidence in the stock market, with all three major U.S. stock indices experiencing gains [3]. - The breach of the 5% threshold in 30-year U.S. Treasury yields alleviates short-term concerns regarding the sustainability of U.S. debt and helps restore investor confidence in global assets [3]. Group 3: Underlying Concerns - Despite the temporary market recovery, analysts caution that Japan's actions do not fundamentally resolve structural issues, particularly regarding the sustainability of Japan's fiscal situation [4]. - The risk associated with U.S. debt remains, as recent auctions for 20-year bonds were weak, and upcoming auctions for 5-year and 7-year bonds will be critical indicators of demand strength [4]. - Global risk appetite remains fragile, with potential escalations in U.S. tariff policies or deteriorating economic fundamentals posing risks of renewed asset sell-offs [4]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Japan's recent market intervention has provided a short-term boost to global financial markets, but deeper issues such as Japan's fiscal sustainability, U.S. debt expansion risks, and sluggish global economic recovery remain unresolved [5]. - The future trajectory of global asset markets will depend on the effectiveness of policy coordination among countries and the pace of economic recovery [5]. - Any policy missteps by involved parties could trigger new rounds of market volatility in this ongoing "confidence game" [5].