“TACO”交易主导，市场完全不把关税当回事

Core Viewpoint - The current global market is experiencing a significant structural misalignment, indicating investors' indifference towards tariff policy threats, as evidenced by the stable performance of inflation swaps and strong asset performance in countries most affected by tariffs [1][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions to Tariff Threats - Despite ongoing tariff threats, the U.S. inflation swap prices have remained largely unchanged since April 2, with the 1-year inflation swap slightly adjusting from 3.40% to 3.36% and the 5-year swap increasing from 2.54% to 2.56% [4][3]. - The phenomenon known as "TACO trading" reflects market behavior where declines follow tariff threats, but subsequent reversals occur when the government retracts its stance, highlighting a pattern of market resilience [2][6]. Group 2: Performance of Affected Assets - Surprisingly, assets in developed economies most vulnerable to tariff impacts have shown strong performance, with the S&P/TSX Composite Index in Canada reaching a historical high and increasing by 5.4% year-to-date [8][10]. - The Canadian bond index has also risen by 0.3% year-to-date, and the Canadian dollar has appreciated over 4% against the U.S. dollar, indicating a stronger-than-expected performance despite economic growth forecasts being downgraded [10]. - Germany's DAX index reached a historical high, only down 0.4% from that level, outperforming other major indices like Stoxx 600 and CAC40, which is notable given Germany's reliance on trade [11][10].