阿里巴巴-W(09988.HK)：电商主业稳中向好 云业务势能持续释放

Core Insights - The company reported FY4Q25 results with revenue of 2364.5 billion RMB, a 6.6% increase, slightly below Bloomberg consensus of 2379.1 billion RMB, which was a 7.2% increase [1] - Adjusted net profit reached 298.5 billion RMB, a 22.2% increase, slightly above Bloomberg consensus of 298.5 billion RMB, which was a 20.3% increase, indicating strong performance [1] Group 1: Taotian Group - Taotian Group achieved revenue of 1013.7 billion RMB in FY4Q25, an 8.8% year-over-year increase, exceeding Bloomberg consensus [2] - CMR revenue was 710.8 billion RMB, up 11.8% year-over-year, significantly above Bloomberg consensus of 684.1 billion RMB [2] - The number of 88VIP users exceeded 50 million, a more than 50% increase year-over-year, reflecting strong user growth [2] Group 2: Cloud Intelligence Group - Cloud Intelligence Group reported revenue of 301.3 billion RMB, a 17.7% increase, slightly above Bloomberg consensus of 299.0 billion RMB [3] - Adjusted EBITA was 24.2 billion RMB, a 69.0% year-over-year increase, although slightly below Bloomberg consensus [3] - AI-related revenue has seen triple-digit year-over-year growth for seven consecutive quarters, indicating strong demand for AI capabilities [3] Group 3: International Business - International digital commerce revenue reached 335.8 billion RMB, a 22.3% year-over-year increase, while adjusted EBITA was -35.7 billion RMB [4] - Cainiao's revenue declined by 12.2% year-over-year to 215.7 billion RMB due to a business adjustment period [4] - Local life services revenue increased by 10.3% year-over-year to 161.3 billion RMB, with a continued trend of reduced losses [4] Group 4: Shareholder Returns - In FY25Q4, the company repurchased 51 million ordinary shares for a total of 600 million USD, with a total of 1.197 billion shares repurchased in FY25 [5] - The company declared a regular dividend of 0.13 USD per share and a special cash dividend of 0.12 USD per share, totaling 4.6 billion USD [5] - Future revenue projections for FY2026-2028 are 10642 billion RMB, 11748 billion RMB, and 12725 billion RMB, with adjusted net profit estimates of 1696 billion RMB, 1849 billion RMB, and 1955 billion RMB respectively [5]