中材科技(002080)：从低介电到低膨胀纱 高端电子纱综合供应力强

Company Status - The market is focusing on the company's high-end electronic yarn products, highlighting its leading capabilities in technology reserves and production line configuration compared to peers [1] - The demand for Low-Dk electronic fabrics is expected to grow due to AI-driven upgrades in the PCB industry, while low-expansion yarn demand is anticipated to increase driven by advanced chip packaging [1] Product Commentary - Low-expansion yarn is crucial for high-precision and high-heat dissipation electronic components, significantly impacting the reliability and lifespan of packaging [2] - The demand for low-expansion yarn is catalyzed by the increase in CoWoS packaging capacity, which requires efficient heat dissipation designs [2] - Major companies like Nvidia, Broadcom, Google, and Microsoft are adopting low-expansion yarn, with domestic demand also rising [2] - According to SemiWiki, TSMC's CoWoS capacity is expected to reach 35,000-40,000 pieces/month in 2024, increasing to 65,000-75,000 pieces/month in 2025, and 90,000-110,000 pieces/month in 2026, which will directly boost low-expansion yarn demand [2] Industry Supply Dynamics - Unlike low-dielectric products, the supply of low-expansion products is limited, with Nitto Denko's T-glass becoming the industry standard [3] - Current production capacity is insufficient to meet downstream demand, with existing suppliers like Zhongcai Technology and Honghe Technology facing challenges in expanding capacity [3] - Zhongcai Technology plans to invest 1.4 billion yuan in a project to produce 35 million meters of specialty fiberglass cloth, which will enable the production of high-value-added products including second-generation electronic fabrics and low-expansion yarn [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 0.96 yuan and 1.15 yuan, respectively, with current stock prices corresponding to P/E ratios of 17x and 14x for those years [4] - The company maintains an outperform rating with a target price of 17.7 yuan, implying a 7% upside potential based on P/E ratios of 18x and 15x for 2025 and 2026 [4]