稳定币即将“颠覆”银行业？美债市场也要变天？

Group 1: Core Insights - The rise of stablecoins is expected to disrupt the U.S. Treasury market and the traditional banking sector, with significant structural changes in demand for U.S. Treasuries and a risk of capital outflow from banks amounting to trillions of dollars [1][7] - Two key stablecoin bills are advancing in Congress: the GENIUS Act and the STABLE Act, which could provide a clear regulatory framework for stablecoin development [2][4] - The adoption of stablecoins may lead to an increase in demand for short-term U.S. Treasuries, exacerbating the steepening of the yield curve and increasing volatility in the Treasury market [4][9] Group 2: Impact on Banking Sector - Approximately $6.6 trillion in bank deposits are at risk of being diverted to stablecoins, with decentralized finance (DeFi) reshaping lending models [7][9] - The GENIUS Act prohibits interest-bearing stablecoins, but alternative methods to earn yields are emerging in the market [7] - Major U.S. banks are exploring the issuance of joint stablecoins and developing blockchain-based payment infrastructures to adapt to the changing landscape [9] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Each $1 flowing from banks to stablecoins generates an additional $0.90 in demand for U.S. Treasuries, indicating a significant impact on the Treasury market [4][6] - The reserve requirements for stablecoin issuers will necessitate holding short-term U.S. Treasuries, further influencing the yield curve [4][6] - Current market shares of major stablecoins include USDT with a market cap of $153.1 billion and USDC with $60.9 billion, together accounting for approximately 87% of the stablecoin market [4]