Nvidia(US:NVDA) Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-05-28 11:48Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock price has experienced significant volatility in 2023 due to macro policies, customer demand, and product cycle shifts, with a focus on its upcoming Q1 2026 financial report [2] Revenue Expectations - Nvidia is expected to achieve Q1 revenue of $43.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 66% [4] - The adjusted earnings per share for Q1 are projected to be $0.81, reflecting a 36% year-on-year increase, with a GAAP gross margin estimated at 70.6% [4][5] - The data center revenue for Q1 is anticipated to be around $39.2 billion, showing a 74% year-on-year growth [4][5] Financial Highlights - Analysts predict that Nvidia's data center segment will contribute approximately 90% of its revenue, with expectations of $38-40 billion in revenue for this segment, representing a year-on-year growth of 77% [5][6] - The expected revenue from the independent GPU segment is $13.38 billion, while the server systems segment is projected to generate $20.9 billion [5] Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Among 44 analysts, 36 have rated Nvidia as "Buy," 6 as "Hold," and 2 as "Sell," with an average target price of $167.53 per share, indicating a potential upside of about 23.6% from the closing price on May 27 [2][4] - Major investment banks have adjusted their target prices, with Morgan Stanley maintaining its target, UBS lowering it from $180 to $150, and Bank of America adjusting its target from $150 to $160 [4] Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - Nvidia's stock has rebounded approximately 40% since the beginning of the year, although it remains about 14% below its historical high reached in January [8] - The stock is expected to experience significant volatility following the earnings report, with predictions of a potential price movement of up to 7.4% [10] Demand Drivers - Major cloud providers, including Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta, contribute to about half of Nvidia's data center revenue, with substantial capital expenditures planned for AI infrastructure [7] - New clients like Tesla and Oracle are increasing demand for Nvidia's chips, supported by sovereign AI initiatives in regions like the Middle East [7] Future Outlook - Despite short-term pressures on revenue and profit growth, analysts believe Nvidia's mid-term growth prospects are improving, driven by the release of new products and easing supply chain constraints [7][8] - The upcoming Blackwell series is expected to significantly boost Nvidia's output, alleviating concerns about inventory surplus [6]