Core Viewpoint - The report from Standard Chartered Bank indicates that if Trump's policies increase U.S. debt without boosting economic growth, the risk of a significant decline in the dollar next year will rise [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Debt and Economic Growth - The simultaneous rise in U.S. government debt and external liabilities poses a significant risk to the dollar and U.S. bonds, potentially leading to a loss of confidence from foreign investors in the U.S.'s long-term borrowing capacity [1]. - The expanding U.S. deficit is reducing national savings and increasing reliance on foreign savings, which translates into a higher current account deficit [1][2]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Market Reactions - Concerns are growing among foreign creditors regarding the sustainability of U.S. debt if tariffs and tax policies fail to stimulate growth, which could manifest as higher risk premiums, either through increased interest rates or a weaker dollar [2][3]. - Investors are beginning to question the stability of U.S. assets due to Trump's aggressive tariff policies and their chaotic implementation [2]. Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - Standard Chartered believes that foreign investors are currently hesitant to fully divest from traditional safe-haven assets, as they await the impact of Trump's policies on growth [3]. - If the tax reform is approved, it may provide some economic benefits this year, but the positive effects are expected to fade by mid-2026 or 2027, raising concerns about long-term growth and debt impacts [3]. Group 4: Federal Reserve's Limitations - The effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's policy tools may be limited in the face of potential crises, with any easing measures possibly not extending to longer-duration bonds [4]. - While the U.S. government can continue to issue dollar-denominated debt, the risk of effective default through inflation could become a substantial concern if the debt trajectory is not stabilized [4].
渣打警告:若特朗普政策未能刺激经济增长,美元明年或面临“重大”下跌
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-05-28 13:26