黄金市场风云变幻，6月或出现三种走向！

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has experienced significant fluctuations in 2023, reaching a historical high above $3,500 per ounce but recently dropping to around $3,120 due to changing inflation expectations, U.S. Treasury yield volatility, and varying diversification demand for safe-haven assets [1]. Scenario Summaries Scenario 1: Stabilization of Gold Prices - Experts predict that gold prices may remain relatively stable throughout June, largely due to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on June 17, which could influence demand based on potential changes in the federal funds rate [2]. - As of May 27, the probability of a rate change in June was only 5.6%, suggesting limited potential for significant price fluctuations [2]. - The implementation of proposed tariffs may also impact gold prices, with recent trends indicating that gold has reacted more to tariff news than to substantial global developments [2]. Scenario 2: Decline in Gold Prices - There is a possibility of gold prices declining, particularly if the Federal Reserve unexpectedly raises interest rates during the June meeting, although this is considered unlikely [3]. - Factors such as rising inflation due to tariffs and a strong labor market could lead to a rate hike, prompting funds to shift from gold to U.S. Treasuries [3]. - Geopolitical developments, such as a resolution to trade tensions or a reduction in central bank gold purchases, could also contribute to a decrease in gold prices [3]. - Despite potential declines, the extent is expected to be limited due to ongoing aggressive gold purchases by central banks, which provide a solid support base for prices [3]. Scenario 3: Rebound in Gold Prices - If economic data released in June indicates a weakening economy, the Federal Reserve may be compelled to lower interest rates, which could drive gold prices higher [3]. - A softening economic outlook would likely increase calls for rate cuts, boosting demand for gold as a weaker dollar stimulates buying [3]. - Significant geopolitical events that heighten risks, such as stalled trade negotiations or increased global tensions, could also lead to a surge in gold prices, potentially breaking historical highs [3].