Why export restrictions aren't the only thing to pay attention to in Nvidia's earnings

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's upcoming earnings report for Q1 of fiscal year 2026 is highly anticipated, particularly regarding the impact of U.S. chip export controls on its international business and future guidance, although some analysts believe the focus should be on the rollout of the new GB200 NVL72 hardware [1][2]. Group 1: GB200 NVL72 Hardware - The GB200 NVL72 machines, which include 72 GPUs and cost approximately $3 million, are a significant focus for shareholders, especially as this is the first quarter the company has shipped the machine [3]. - Analysts have reduced their delivery estimates for the GB200 NVL72 due to chaos surrounding DeepSeek in late January, despite strong demand and high expectations [3]. - If Nvidia announces a delivery of 10,000 units in Q2, it could represent $30 billion in revenue, but estimates suggest they may deliver less than 5,000 units [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Stock Performance - Immediate effects on Nvidia's stock are expected based on comments regarding U.S. export controls, but long-term valuation may be more influenced by demand for the GB200 NVL72 [7]. - Nvidia's stock has shown resilience, recovering quickly from short-term market reactions, indicating a strong competitive position [8]. - The company continues to find customers outside of China, maintaining strong demand for its AI chips, with new projects like Stargate in the Middle East likely contributing positively [9]. Group 3: Enterprise Demand for AI Technology - The results from the GB200 NVL72 shipments will provide insights into enterprise appetite for the latest AI technology, raising questions about whether companies will consistently upgrade their AI hardware [4]. - The demand for GB200 NVL72 units will be a key indicator for Nvidia's performance, overshadowing fluctuations in quarterly revenue [9].