Alcoa Rises 12.1% in a Month: Should You Buy the Stock Now or Wait?

Core Viewpoint - Alcoa Corporation (AA) has shown strong stock performance, increasing 12.1% in the past month, outperforming both the industry and S&P 500 [1] Stock Performance - Alcoa's stock closed at $28.25, below its 52-week high of $47.77 and above its 52-week low of $21.53, indicating mixed sentiment as it trades above its 50-day moving average but below its 200-day moving average [4] Factors Influencing Performance - Demand for aluminum is rising due to the popularity of lighter electric vehicles, recycled aluminum, and increased aircraft production, which boosts demand for aluminum alloys [5] - U.S. tariffs of 25% on imported steel and aluminum have increased prices, benefiting domestic producers like Alcoa, although they have not revived U.S. smelting operations [6] - A lack of competitively priced electricity has led to smelter closures, including Alcoa's permanent closure of its Intalco smelter in March 2023, impacting production [7] Segment Performance - Alcoa's Aluminum segment is benefiting from strong demand in electrical and packaging markets, with production expected to reach 2.3-2.5 million tonnes in 2025 and shipments anticipated at 2.6-2.8 million tonnes [8] - The Alumina segment is seeing growth in its Sustana product line, with production expected to be 9.5-9.7 million tonnes and shipments likely to be 13.1-13.3 million tonnes in 2025 [9] Strategic Actions - Alcoa has made strategic moves to enhance growth, including the acquisition of Alumina Limited in August 2024, which strengthens its position in the bauxite and alumina market [10] Financial Metrics - Alcoa's trailing 12-month return on equity (ROE) is 18.56%, higher than the industry average of 17.98%, indicating efficient use of shareholder funds [11] - The stock has a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 8.78X, below the industry average of 9.08X, making it an attractive valuation compared to peers [13] Earnings Estimates - Earnings estimates for 2025 have decreased by 13.1% to $3.57 per share, and for 2026, they have declined by 19.2% to $2.69 per share [16]