吉宏股份(002803)：业绩持续高增 看好东南亚电商市场爆发

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a reversal in its cross-border e-commerce business, with a significant decline in 2024 revenues but a promising outlook for 2025 and beyond due to strategic positioning in the Southeast Asian market and advancements in AI technology [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 5.529 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.41% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 182 million yuan, down 47.28% year-on-year - The packaging business generated revenue of 2.010 billion yuan, remaining stable [1][1][1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.477 billion yuan, an increase of 11.55% year-on-year, and a net profit of 59.16 million yuan, up 38.21% year-on-year - The gross margin for the quarter was 45.63%, an increase of 5.01 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 4.23%, up 1.24 percentage points year-on-year [1][1][1] Market Opportunities - The Southeast Asian e-commerce market is rapidly expanding, with a market size of 234 billion USD and a compound annual growth rate of 22% - The demographic trend shows that over 50% of the population in key Southeast Asian countries is under 35 years old, driving demand for quality and cost-effective products [1][1] - The company derives 70% of its revenue from Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia, positioning itself favorably against trade wars and tariffs [1][1] Strategic Initiatives - The company has been actively exploring partnerships in neighboring countries and prioritizing regions with favorable tariffs and demographic advantages [1] - Since establishing its cross-border social e-commerce business in 2017, the company has focused on enhancing data analysis capabilities and AI technology to improve operational efficiency [1] - The company aims to leverage its robust information infrastructure and increasing sample sizes to create a unique competitive edge through "data + intelligent algorithms" [1][1] Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 6.650 billion, 7.681 billion, and 8.906 billion yuan, with net profits attributable to shareholders expected to be 301 million, 396 million, and 486 million yuan respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [1][1]