马斯克的星舰可能最终会烂尾

Core Viewpoint - The recent failures of SpaceX's Starship highlight significant design, manufacturing, and operational challenges, raising concerns about the feasibility of achieving its ambitious goals in space transportation [1][4][5]. Group 1: Technical Challenges - Starship has experienced a failure rate exceeding 50%, with 5 out of 9 launches unsuccessful, indicating systemic issues that may not be easily resolved [1]. - The complexity of coordinating multiple engines (33 Raptor engines on the first stage and 6-9 on the second stage) presents significant challenges in fuel distribution and flight attitude control [2][3]. - Material choices, such as the use of low-cost 304L stainless steel, have increased thermal risks, necessitating thicker walls to withstand pressure and heat, which complicates the design [2][3]. Group 2: Manufacturing and Quality Control Issues - The lack of skilled technical workers in the U.S. has led to inadequate management of Starship's manufacturing and assembly processes, resulting in quality control issues [3][4]. - The integration of various problems—design flaws, material issues, production quality, and software challenges—has made it difficult for experts to pinpoint specific failures, complicating the troubleshooting process [3][4]. Group 3: Strategic and Operational Concerns - The ambitious goals set for Starship, including high payload capacity and recovery capabilities, are undermined by insufficient funding, inadequate workforce, and poor management practices [4][5]. - The current operational strategy appears to be overly optimistic, with a "one-size-fits-all" approach that does not allow for incremental problem-solving, risking the viability of the entire project [4][5]. - The potential for ongoing failures could lead to a situation where the project is deemed unfeasible, ultimately resulting in abandonment due to financial constraints [4].