广州期货：不锈钢成本支撑显现

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by Indonesia's industrial policies, global trade tensions, and raw material prices, with current prices stabilizing but facing downward pressure due to weak demand and inventory accumulation [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In Q1, Indonesia's industrial policies positively impacted the stainless steel market, with prices peaking at 13,800 CNY/ton [1] - Following the implementation of the "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration, stainless steel futures dropped significantly, reaching a low of below 12,600 CNY/ton [1] - As global trade tensions eased, nickel-iron prices continued to decline, leading to a lack of upward momentum for stainless steel prices [1] Group 2: Nickel Supply and Pricing - The current supply of Indonesian nickel ore remains tight, with domestic prices for 1.6%-1.8% grade nickel ore stabilizing around 60 USD/wet ton [1] - If the Indonesian government reduces nickel ore production quotas, it could exacerbate supply-demand imbalances in Q3, potentially benefiting stainless steel prices [1] - Nickel raw material costs account for approximately 61% of the cost structure for the mainstream 300 series stainless steel, indicating significant sensitivity to nickel price changes [1] Group 3: Nickel Iron and Chromium Prices - Nickel iron prices have seen a decline from 1,030 CNY/nickel at the end of March to 940 CNY/nickel, but recently rebounded to around 970 CNY/nickel, providing some cost support for stainless steel [2] - High-carbon ferrochrome prices are under pressure due to the resumption of production at ferrochrome plants and reduced output from some stainless steel manufacturers, with costs in southern and northern regions reported at 8,561 CNY/50 base tons and 8,362 CNY/50 base tons, respectively [2] Group 4: Production and Inventory - In May, domestic stainless steel crude steel production was 3.4899 million tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.36% but a year-on-year increase of 5.76% [2] - Recent production cuts from stainless steel manufacturers, such as a three-month shutdown at Indonesia's Qingshan Steel and a planned 10-15 day shutdown at a steel plant in East China, have had limited impact on the futures market due to high overall supply levels [2] Group 5: Demand and Market Outlook - The second quarter is traditionally a slow season for stainless steel demand, with the real estate market showing weak recovery indicators [3] - Export challenges due to tariffs and new regulations are expected to limit improvements in stainless steel demand [3] - Social inventory of stainless steel has been accumulating, with a reported increase of 0.85% to 1.1177 million tons in major markets [3] - Overall, while production cuts and rising nickel iron prices provide some support, weak demand and slow inventory digestion are likely to keep stainless steel prices in a range of 12,600 to 13,200 CNY/ton in the short term [3]