福能期货：螺纹钢驱动依旧向下

Core Viewpoint - The rebar steel market is experiencing a bearish sentiment, with the main contract accelerating its decline and falling below 3000 yuan/ton, marking ten consecutive days of losses [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Seasonal factors are contributing to a psychological expectation of reduced demand for rebar steel as southern regions enter the traditional rainy season, with last week's apparent consumption at 2.4713 million tons, a decrease of 131,600 tons week-on-week [2] - The pressure on the rebar steel fundamentals is primarily due to the current profit levels in steelmaking, with steel mills showing limited willingness to cut production. Despite a continuous decline in coking coal prices, the profit margin for steel mills remains around 100 yuan/ton, with the profitability rate increasing to 59.74% last week, up 0.43 percentage points [2] - Rebar steel production last week was 2.3148 million tons, an increase of 49,500 tons week-on-week, indicating that production levels may remain stable under current profit conditions, despite the growing supply-demand imbalance [2] Cost Trends - The oversupply of coking coal continues to suppress prices, allowing steel mills to exert pressure on coking prices. A second round of price reductions for coking coal has begun, with expectations for further reductions in June, leading to a continued decrease in rebar steel costs [3] - Daily pig iron production last week was 2.436 million tons, a decrease of 11,700 tons week-on-week, indicating a potential weakening in raw material demand as terminal demand declines [3] - Iron ore shipments are expected to stabilize and gradually increase as the end of the month approaches, with total shipments from Australia and Brazil reaching 27.292 million tons, an increase of 231,000 tons week-on-week. However, there are concerns about a marginal weakening in the iron ore fundamentals, with potential risks of price corrections [3] Summary - Overall, the terminal demand is entering a low season, with rebar steel production remaining stable at current profit levels and raw material supply being ample. If production does not decrease, the fundamentals may weaken; conversely, if production is cut, the decline in raw material prices could also exert downward pressure. Therefore, the supply-demand imbalance is likely to become more pronounced over time, with price movements continuing to trend downward. Attention should be paid to the risks of coal mine production cuts [4]