橡胶期货创1年来低位，下游需求疲弱，后市暗藏变数

Group 1 - On May 28, industrial products faced significant selling pressure, with rubber futures leading the decline, particularly natural rubber and 20 rubber, which fell over 4% [2] - The natural rubber futures contract for 2509 dropped to 13,725 yuan/ton, marking a 2.2% decrease and reaching a one-year low [2] - The decline in rubber futures is attributed to a combination of external trade environment and seasonal off-peak demand, as Southeast Asian rubber-producing countries enter the seasonal tapping period, increasing raw material supply [2] Group 2 - From January 2 to May 28, the main rubber futures contract 2509 has seen a cumulative decline of 22% [3] - The drop in rubber prices is linked to weakened demand expectations for the year, particularly following increased tariff disturbances since April, leading to a decrease in operating rates at downstream tire factories [3] - In May, the average operating load for domestic all-steel tires was 57.3%, down 7.85% from April, while semi-steel tires averaged 71.1%, down 8.11% from April [3] Group 3 - The period from February to May is typically a low production phase for rubber trees, with production expected to rise after this period, continuing until September [4] - Despite the decline in rubber futures prices, downstream tire manufacturers maintain a cautious purchasing attitude, influenced by high basis prices for Thai mixed rubber, making natural rubber less cost-effective [4] - There is a steady growth in demand for replacement tires as temperatures rise, although overall demand growth remains slow, leading to increased finished product inventory at tire manufacturers [5] Group 4 - The global production of natural rubber is projected to increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons in 2025, with Thailand expected to see a 1.2% increase and Indonesia a 9.8% decrease [6] - The global natural rubber production saw a seasonal reduction in April, with a total output of 7.67 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 31.7% [6] - Domestic natural rubber production from January to April showed a year-on-year increase of 26.15%, with various regions entering a seasonal production increase phase [7] Group 5 - The impact of tariff policies on downstream tire and automotive international trade has led to a decline in exports of tires from China to the U.S., with all-steel tire exports down 5.43% month-on-month in April [8] - High inventory levels at tire manufacturers are noted, with average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tires increasing by 15.65% year-on-year [8] - The overall supply-demand balance is expected to remain loose, with rubber prices likely to continue a weak trend, supported at around 13,000 yuan/ton [9] Group 6 - The basic supply-demand dynamics suggest that natural rubber may experience a supply increase, while high inventory levels at tire manufacturers and slow terminal demand growth hinder upward price transmission [9] - The price of synthetic rubber is also expected to be influenced by the decline in natural rubber prices, with a generally loose supply-demand situation [9] - The current average monthly price of natural rubber is on par with the same period last year, with expectations of continued weak performance until the end of the year [9]