美联储暂停降息，关税政策推升通胀担忧，金价短期承压丨黄金早参

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have declined for three consecutive days, influenced by the Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts, with prices reaching a low of $3,273 before a slight recovery to close at $3,284.40 per ounce [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate increased uncertainty in the current economic environment, leading to a cautious approach regarding interest rate cuts, with a preference to wait for clarity on tariff policies before making decisions [1][2] - Almost all committee members expressed concerns that tariffs could lead to a long-term increase in inflation levels, highlighting the challenging balance between curbing inflation and maintaining employment [1][2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite the Fed maintaining interest rates, concerns over tariffs pushing inflation and slowing job growth have intensified, suggesting a cautious monetary policy outlook [2] - Geopolitical conflicts have supported safe-haven demand, but improved U.S. consumer confidence data and rising U.S. Treasury yields have diminished gold's appeal [2] - The U.S. 10-year real yield has increased, and the dollar index rose by 0.28% to 99.89, further pressuring gold prices [2] Group 3: Import and Market Expectations - Notably, Switzerland's gold imports from the U.S. reached a new high since 2012 in April, while Hong Kong's net gold imports doubled year-on-year in April [2] - The market anticipates a potential 45 basis points rate cut from the Fed within the year, but strong economic data and a cautious policy stance are currently putting pressure on gold prices [2]