路风：美国发起对决，中国靠什么赢得世纪挑战？

Group 1 - The challenges facing the Chinese economy include a new wave of external shocks, particularly related to US-China relations and tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [2][4] - Trump's strategy aims to reshape US hegemony by dismantling the existing global economic system and transferring the costs of economic adjustments to other countries, especially targeting China as a primary threat [3][4] - The US has initiated measures against China, including increased tariffs on Chinese goods and restrictions on semiconductor exports, indicating a clear adversarial stance [4] Group 2 - The concept of "manufacturing return" promoted by Trump is unlikely to succeed due to the historical decline of US manufacturing, which began in the 1970s and is attributed to the pursuit of global hegemony [5][9] - The US's industrial decline is linked to its geopolitical strategies post-World War II, which prioritized maintaining hegemony over industrial growth [11][12] - The historical context shows that the US's industrial strength was built on existing technologies and innovations from other countries, making it difficult to reverse the trend of deindustrialization [8][9] Group 3 - The notion that manufacturing can simply be "transferred" back to the US is flawed; industrial capabilities are inherently organizational and cannot be easily relocated [18][19] - China's industrialization is not a result of "industry transfer" but rather a product of its own comprehensive industrial system developed over decades [20][21] - The success of Chinese companies, such as North Huachuang in the semiconductor sector, illustrates the strength of China's domestic industrial capabilities, which have been built over time [23][24] Group 4 - The US's attempts to revitalize its manufacturing sector through foreign investments, such as those from TSMC and Samsung, do not equate to genuine industrialization [26][28] - The labor market in the US has shifted significantly, with a high-cost, low-skill workforce that is ill-suited for manufacturing, contrasting with China's low-cost, high-skill labor force [28][29] - The challenges of re-industrialization in the US are compounded by decades of industrial decline, making it more difficult than the initial industrialization process [29][30] Group 5 - China's industrial development must avoid self-imposed limitations, particularly the "binary thinking" that separates traditional and high-tech industries, as both are essential for economic growth [30][31] - The suppression of traditional industries in favor of new technologies has led to inefficiencies and a lack of balance in the industrial structure, which is detrimental to overall economic health [33][34] - The historical context of China's industrialization shows that a complete industrial system is necessary for sustainable growth, and the current policies must reflect this understanding [20][21][43]