谢晨：中国办公楼市场2024年回顾与2025展望 | 2025观点商办暨资管大会演讲

Market Overview - The office market in China has seen a significant increase in vacancy rates, particularly in the last few years, indicating a widening gap between supply and demand [1][2] - The average annual net absorption before the pandemic was 3.9 million square meters, but it dropped to an average of 2 million square meters in the last three years [3][4] - In 2024, new office setups and expansions are both expected to decline, while relocations are active due to falling rental prices [4][5] 2024 Market Performance - The first quarter of 2024 showed a rebound with 760,000 square meters of new supply and 580,000 square meters of net absorption, marking a 35% year-on-year increase [7][8] - Despite the positive signs, the vacancy rate is still rising, currently at 23%, which continues to exert downward pressure on rental prices [7][8] Demand Trends - The demand for office space is increasingly driven by sectors related to new productivity, such as high-end manufacturing, TMT, and life sciences, which accounted for 27% of new demand in early 2025 [9][10] - Traditional sectors like finance are primarily driven by existing demand, with 90% of their needs being from current tenants [9][10] Tenant Preferences - Cost remains a critical factor for tenants, with 92% indicating that lower rental prices and flexible leasing terms are essential for their decisions [10][11] - Accessibility to public transport is prioritized, with 83% of tenants emphasizing its importance, followed by the availability of dining options [11][12] ESG Considerations - A significant portion of tenants (36%) now considers ESG goals in their site selection, with 31% having set net-zero targets by 2030 or earlier [13][14] - The demand for green buildings is expected to increase, as tenants will likely require clear sustainability commitments in future leases [14][15] Supply Dynamics - The supply of office space remains tight, particularly in first-tier cities where core location availability is only 2% [15][16] - The market is expected to remain tenant-driven, with rental prices projected to decline by 5-8% in 2025 due to ongoing uncertainties [15][16] Long-term Outlook - The long-term supply of office buildings is anticipated to decrease, suggesting that the most challenging times may be behind the market [19][20] - The industry remains optimistic about the future of the office market in China, despite current challenges [19][20]