欧线集运期货暴跌背后三大原因，未来能否逆袭？

Group 1 - The recent decline in European shipping futures is attributed to three main reasons: insufficient price increases in the spot market, macroeconomic disturbances, and a temporary easing of supply-demand fundamentals [2][3][5] - Shipping companies attempted to raise prices on the European route, but the market remains skeptical about the effectiveness of these increases, especially after a price cut on May 27 [2] - The European Union has lowered its economic growth forecast for the Eurozone, which dampens expectations for import demand, compounded by ongoing trade policy uncertainties from the U.S. [3] Group 2 - The end of the rush period for U.S. shipping has led to a slowdown in inventory replenishment by cargo owners, resulting in a return of capacity that was previously diverted to the European route [4] - On the supply side, a significant increase in U.S. shipping cancellations in May has led to a reallocation of capacity to the European route, increasing supply [5] - The traditional retail inventory replenishment season in Europe has not yet started, leading to a current market characterized by "high prices but low activity" [5] Group 3 - Future attention should be focused on the Red Sea detour ratio, which remains above 75%, as this detour reduces effective capacity by about 30%, providing support for price floors [6] - If the situation in the Red Sea worsens or if trade policies in Europe and the U.S. ease, prices could potentially break previous highs [6] - The current shipping index for Europe is in a phase of "macroeconomic expectation adjustment" and "seasonal industry competition," necessitating close monitoring of shipping companies' pricing strategies and geopolitical developments [6]