ETO出入金：纸黄金价格走跌 美联储6月降息预期持续降温

Group 1 - International gold prices continued to show weakness, with paper gold prices dipping to 750.72 CNY per gram and closing at 757.85 CNY per gram, reflecting a daily decline of 0.61% [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in June have plummeted, with the probability of a cut now at only 2.2%, and a 24% chance for July, leading traders to bet on a potential easing cycle starting in September [1][3] - Gold, as a low-interest-rate sensitive asset, has benefited from global central bank easing expectations, with a year-to-date increase of 26% and a historical high reached in April [3] Group 2 - The recent strong "hawkish" signals from the Federal Reserve pose significant challenges for gold bulls, especially after the U.S. consumer confidence index for May rose unexpectedly to 102, the highest in six months, reinforcing confidence in a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy [3] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. fiscal policy, particularly comments from former President Trump regarding a new tax bill, raises concerns about the sustainability of fiscal expansion, which could delay the Fed's rate cut timeline and exert further pressure on gold [3] - Upcoming economic data releases, including the revised Q1 GDP and April core PCE price index, are critical for market observation, as resilient economic data and unexpected inflation readings could further reduce rate cut expectations and increase gold price volatility [3] Group 3 - Technically, paper gold is showing a downward trend, with key resistance identified in the 785-795 CNY per gram range and significant support at 730-740 CNY per gram; a breach of this support could lead to further declines [4] - The market is currently in a phase of "economic data validation" and "policy expectation adjustment," with a focus on the marginal changes in inflation statements from Federal Reserve officials and whether core PCE data confirms a downward inflation trend [5] - Until the timing of rate cuts becomes clearer, gold is likely to experience high volatility at elevated levels, suggesting that investment opportunities should be timed with both technical and fundamental alignment [5]