【UNFX课堂】降息预期生变：美联储“观望”模式下，股市与美元面临新挑战

Group 1 - The financial markets are reassessing the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, posing new challenges for global stock markets and the dollar [1] - The Federal Reserve is currently adopting a cautious wait-and-see approach, awaiting further clarity on inflation and economic outlook [1] - There is a high level of uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, with officials expressing concerns about persistent inflation and potential economic weakness [1] Group 2 - Upcoming key economic data will provide insights into the true state of the U.S. economy, with a focus on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index [2] - The overall PCE is expected to slightly decrease to 2.2% year-on-year, the lowest level in seven months, while core PCE is projected to drop to 2.5%, the lowest since March 2021 [2] Group 3 - Economic data is not entirely optimistic, with a second estimate of Q1 GDP expected to confirm a 0.3% annualized decline [3] - Consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level since June 2022, indicating a decline in market sentiment [3] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates before September, with a 40.1% chance of a delay in rate cuts [3] - The market's expectations for rate cuts this year have been reduced to only 40 basis points, the most moderate setting for 2025 in three months [3] - The trend of delayed rate cuts may invigorate long-term U.S. Treasury and gold prices, while putting pressure on the stock market and the dollar [3]