黄金白银：多国央行政策多变，贵金属或先抑后扬

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is adopting a cautious approach to interest rate cuts due to high uncertainty and inflation risks, indicating potential challenges ahead [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes highlight a consensus on the risks of inflation, suggesting that rate cuts may be difficult [1] - The expectation for rate cuts has been pushed back to September or December due to concerns over consumer inflation driven by tariffs [1] Group 2: Global Central Bank Actions - The European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates by 25 basis points in April, with expectations for further cuts later in the year [1] - The Bank of England reduced its key rate to 4.25% in May, with market expectations for only one more cut by the end of the year [1] - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to raise rates around July, following a recent increase to 0.5% [1] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The 5-year U.S. Treasury auction showed strong overseas demand, reaching a historical high [1] - The upcoming maturity of U.S. Treasury bonds, totaling $1.2 trillion and $1.46 trillion in June and July respectively, may lead to liquidity shocks [1] - Japan's 40-year bond auction saw a bidding ratio at its lowest since July 2024, although results were better than the previous week [1] Group 4: Precious Metals Investment Outlook - Due to the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks, precious metal prices may experience fluctuations, with potential for recovery after initial declines [1] - Investors are advised to consider long positions during market pullbacks, paying attention to support and resistance levels for various commodities [1]