关税被叫停，美债收益率不降反升，为什么？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. International Trade Court has blocked President Trump's tariff policy, leading to an unexpected rise in bond yields, indicating market concerns about economic governance rather than a positive response to reduced trade barriers [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassed 4.5%, while the 2-year yield increased by over 1 percentage point, contrary to expectations that tariffs being halted would lower input costs and ease inflation [1][2]. - The bond market's reaction signals a warning about the chaotic governance and systemic disorder in the U.S. economy, rather than indifference to the tariff cancellation [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Governance Concerns - The halting of tariffs has exposed a governance vacuum, with the judicial branch overriding executive authority, suggesting a lack of coherent economic leadership [3][4]. - The current net issuance of U.S. debt is near historical highs, and with the Federal Reserve no longer acting as a buyer, there are concerns about the market's ability to absorb this debt, exacerbated by potential declines in fiscal revenue due to tariff cancellations [3][4]. Group 3: Implications for Trade Negotiations - The court ruling weakens Trump's negotiating position, as it raises the risk of domestic judicial challenges to trade policies, potentially emboldening trade partners to delay negotiations [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that if the tariff suspension remains in effect, asset performance may shift towards a scenario of "tax cuts rising, tariffs falling," with bond yields remaining high due to increased fiscal burdens [5][6]. Group 4: Systemic Risks - The bond market's response indicates that the financial system is nearing a critical point, with rising leverage and deteriorating liquidity in Treasury futures suggesting increased vulnerability to systemic risks [4][5]. - Historical precedents show that markets react strongly to policy inconsistencies, and the current situation in the U.S. reflects a similar pattern of instability [4][5].