凯德北京投资基金管理有限公司：卡什卡利表示不要忽视了关税对美国经济的长期影响

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain stable interest rates is crucial in the current economic climate, particularly as the impact of tariffs on inflation has yet to fully materialize [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Environment - The U.S. inflation rate has exceeded the Federal Reserve's 2% target for four consecutive years, raising concerns about long-term inflation expectations [3]. - The impact of tariffs, especially on intermediate goods, will not be immediate, leading to delayed effects on consumer prices [3]. - Ongoing global trade negotiations may last for months or even years, complicating the situation further [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - Some policymakers advocate for interest rate cuts to support economic growth, viewing tariff impacts as short-term inflation shocks [1][3]. - However, the Federal Reserve, particularly through the views of Kashkari, emphasizes the need to remain vigilant regarding the long-term effects of trade policies and tariffs on inflation and economic stability [1][3][5]. - Since December of the previous year, the Federal Reserve has maintained the policy interest rate between 4.25% and 4.5%, primarily due to uncertainties surrounding the new tariff policies [5].